In the NFL, winning the division one year does not mean you're going to win the division again the next year.
Last year, six of the eight division winners were repeat champions, but two 2023 division winners — the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers — went out and struggled the next year, with both teams finishing under .500. Past success is not necessarily a sign of future success.
Let's power rank the eight division winners based on how likely they are to repeat. Note that this is only about their chance to win the division again. I'm not arguing, for example, that the Buccaneers are better than the Lions. Just that Tampa has a better chance to win the NFC South than the Lions have to win the NFC North. (Yes, I just spoiled that the No. 8 team is...)
8. Detroit Lions - NFC North
Sorry, Lions, but the Packers look like the team to beat in the NFC North after trading for Micah Parsons right before the start of the 2025 NFL season.
Not that Parsons alone swings things, and not that the Lions don't have a shot to still win the division. But assuming J.J. McCarthy works out in Minnesota and that the Bears take a step forward in Caleb Williams' second season, this is a division with four teams that could make the playoffs and three that could realistically win the division. It's going to be tough for the Lions to repeat, and I have virtually no confidence in picking the correct winner here.
7. Philadelphia Eagles - NFC East
The defending champions might not even win their division in 2025, but it's not because Philly has taken a step back. It's simply because the NFC East is really, really good.
Minus the Giants, I mean.
Dallas and Washington both have very good shots to win the division, even after the Cowboys made the head-scratching decision to trade Micah Parsons. Commanders second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels might already be the division's best quarterback, and the Cowboys are always a threat, assuming Dak Prescott is healthy.
6. Los Angeles Rams - NFC West
If Matthew Stafford is actually healthy and these last couple of months of "is Stafford okay??????" speculation have been just that — speculation — then the Rams should win the NFC West, though it's not a foregone conclusion.
If we get a slightly hobbled Stafford and the Seahawks get a version of Sam Darnold that looks closer to 2024 Vikings Darnold instead of the Darnold we saw across the rest of his NFL career, then this becomes a dogfight, with the 49ers lurking because you can never count out a Kyle Shanahan team, even if the 49ers are coming off a disappointing 6-11 season.
5. Baltimore Ravens - AFC North
No, Baltimore isn't this low because I believe in Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's because I believe in the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincinnati was very, very good offensively in 2024, but the defense consistently let the team down. That could certainly be the case again, but hiring Al Golden as the defensive coordinator feels like a very under-the-radar move that could help shore things up on that end, even if most of the starters on defense are the same ones who started for the team last year.
And look: I know I dismissed the Steelers like two paragraphs ago, but Mike Tomlin teams don't know how to lose, so if Aaron Rodgers can make a miraculous return to his pre-injury form, then maybe the Steelers could make a run at the division title.
4. Houston Texans - AFC South
Consider this ranking less about the rest of the AFC South and more a reflection of the fact that Houston should run away with the division, except for one important issue: the offensive line.
I'm on record as saying that I like what the Texans did with the line this offseason, essentially completely rebuilding what was the team's worst group in 2024. However, just because it looks improved in the preseason doesn't mean it will be in the regular season. Houston has a lot of moving parts up front and if those pieces don't gel quickly, then Jacksonville could make a surprise run at the division title. I firmly believe Trevor Lawrence is about to have his best NFL season now that Liam Coen is calling the shots in Jacksonville.
3. Kansas City Chiefs - AFC West
The Kansas City Chiefs enter 2025 having won the AFC West nine seasons in a row. Could that streak finally come to an end?
If I had to bet on it, I'd say no, but it's closer than it has been. If Bo Nix avoids a sophomore slump, the Broncos can win it. If Geno Smith is as good as he was in Seattle, the Raiders can win it. If Keenan Allen's return to Los Angeles goes well, the Chargers can win it.
There are valid cases for all three teams, but history tends to repeat itself. As long as the Chiefs keep winning and as long as Patrick Mahomes is still their quarterback, then they have to be considered the prohibitive favorites in the AFC West.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - NFC South
Carolina is a dark-horse NFC South contender, but the Buccaneers should have no trouble winning the division title once again as long as one important thing holds true: Baker Mayfield has to keep being good.
Based on his NFL track record, that's not a guarantee. The former No. 1 overall pick wasn't available for Tampa before the 2023 season for no reason; he's looked like an upper-level NFL quarterback these past two years, but last year's career year came with Liam Coen as the OC, and Coen is now the head coach in Jacksonville. Add in the uncertainty of the Chris Godwin situation, and maybe the Bucs and Mayfield end up regressing.
Still, the likeliest scenario is a division title. We don't know if Bryce Young is THE guy in Carolina. We don't know if Michael Penix Jr. is THE guy in Atlanta. We don't know if the New Orleans Saints are capable of winning a single football game.
1. Buffalo Bills - AFC East
This one was a no-brainer. Josh Allen is a top-five quarterback in the NFL. The other AFC East starting quarterbacks are — in order of how confident I am in them being good — Tua Tagovailoa, Drake Maye and Justin Fields.
Obviously, quarterback isn't the only important factor here, but the Bills are also just better overall than the rest of the division. There's a reason this team has dominated the post-Tom Brady era in the AFC East, and it's because the team is consistently good on both sides of the ball. There remain some concerns about the pass-catchers, but Allen is one of the few quarterbacks who you can trust to win with literally anyone at wide receiver.