You can’t blame teams for trying to maximize a player’s value, especially among trade deadline madness. But realism has to play a role, too. Looking back at recent NFL history, it’s clear the New York Jets, New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals may be overestimating what their stars are actually worth.
The Jets are asking for at least a third round pick for Breece Hall; the Saints are asking for at least a first round pick and more for Chris Olave, and the Bengals want at least a first round pick in return for a trade for Trey Hendrickson. Each organization is well within their right to ask for whatever, but it doesn’t mean those demands will be met.
Let’s predict what each player is worth ahead of Tuesday’s deadline, based on similar NFL trades made within the past 10 years.
New York Jets’ asking price for Breece Hall doesn’t line up with recent RB trades
The New York Jets want at least a third-round pick for Breece Hall. You can’t blame them for reaching, but based on previous deals, it’s not likely they get anything close to that for Hall. He doesn’t have a 1,000-yard rushing season yet, and he hasn’t even been named to the Pro Bowl. To think that he’d be as valuable as a third-round pick is irrational.
In the past 10 years, only Christian McCaffrey has yielded such a massive haul, and it's understandable why. Just this year, the three biggest running back moves yielded nothing more than a fifth round pick. Tank Bigsby was a fifth and sixth round pick; Brian Robinson Jr. was a sixth-round pick; Jordan Mason was a fifth and sixth round pick and San Francisco gave up a sixth round pick. Joe Mixon was more proven than Hall, and Mixon was only worth a seventh-round pick.
While I like the Jets for being aggressive and wanting to get as good of a return as possible, it’s time for them to come back down to earth. Realistically, Hall probably isn’t worth more than a fifth-round pick.
Projected value: Fifth round pick
New Orleans Saints may have to settle for less in a Chris Olave deal
The New Orleans Saints have to realize that holding onto Chris Olave does no good for them right now. Sure, they have a receiver they can build around, but there’s no telling how long this rebuild in the Big Easy is going to take, so parting ways with Olave now will yield the best return. That doesn’t mean, however, the Saints should oversell.
Depending on how you evaluate Olave, in 2025, the best the Saints will get for him is maybe a second round pick, which the Steelers gave up for Metcalf. Deebo Samuel yielded a fifth-round pick, and if we go back even further, it cost the Arizona Cardinals a first round pick for Hollywood Brown and then the Philadelphia Eagles a first-round pick for A.J. Brown.
The Hollywood Brown trade is the Saints’ best comparison for asking a high price, but Brown’s underwhelming stint out West also shows why no wide receiver has fetched a first-round pick since 2022.
Projected value: Third round pick
Cincinnati Bengals’ push to move Trey Hendrickson could backfire
The Cincinnati Bengals shouldn’t have brought Trey Hendrickson back this season, and they’re quickly finding out why. Thanks to a re-worked deal, Hendrickson joined the team just in time for the start of the season, but the Bengals aren’t anywhere close to the contenders they thought they’d be this year. Now they’re trying to squeeze as much as they can in a deal.
Doing some comparisons, the best the Bengals might get for Hendrickson is a second round pick. When Von Miller was traded from Denver to the Los Angeles Rams, it cost the Rams a second and third round pick. When Khalil Mack was sent from the Chicago Bears to the Los Angeles Chargers, it involved a second-round pick as well.
I chose those moves specifically because Hendrickson is at a similar point in his career, which means the value could be about the same. In 2023, Montez Sweat and Chase Young were each traded and cost a second round and third round pick, respectively. There are some outliers, but based on previous moves, the Bengals shouldn’t expect a big return for Hendrickson.
Although he amassed 17.5 sacks in each of the past two seasons, he has just four this year and is now a player who is more a complementary one than the focal point of a defense. That said, in the right system, he could still be destructive.