At an updated sack total of 18 over 11 games played through the 2025 season (1.64 per game), it can be taken as a guarantee that Myles Garrett will break the single-season record for sacks set by Michael Strahan in 2001. Strahan's total of 22.5 has only been matched once since, by T.J. Watt in 2021, and yet if Garrett's average is extrapolated over the rest of the 2025 season, "break" is too soft of a word for what he's going to do to it. Garrett is on pace for just under a whopping 28 sacks by season's end — he's going to shatter it.
The only question is when? When are we going to witness history? And how many sacks could Garrett actually finish with by Week 18?
Predicting when Myles Garrett will pass Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt
Here's the tough thing about predicting Garrett's sack totals: His 18 sacks so far this season have come in fits and starts. In fact, from Weeks 3-6, Garrett only recorded half a sack. But then he exploded: Over the past month, Garrett has totaled 13 sacks, with a single-game high of a whopping five against the Patriots.
So: difficult to predict over the next few weeks. However, Garrett does have a shot to pass the magic 22.5 mark within the next couple of games. In fact, there's a decent shot that Garrett can pass the mark in Week 14 alone against the Titans, who have allowed an average of four sacks per game. Unfortunately, that matchup is sandwiched between two difficult games, a duel with 49ers legend Trent Williams in Week 13 and against the Bears' league-best line in Week 15.
However, it is significant that the Niners have allowed a sack in all but two of their games this season, and Garrett is the single most talented pass rusher that San Francisco will have faced to date. That goes double for Chicago, which has allowed Caleb Williams to be taken down in all but one of their games — and what's worse is the current flux they have going on at their left tackle position.
The best and safest guess for Garrett to eclipse 22.5 sacks is in Week 15. But really, that might be too conservative.
How many sacks could Myles Garrett set a new record with?
The sad thing about Garrett's upcoming schedule — and the sorry state of the Browns — is that his best shots at beating the record end at Week 15 or 16. After their matchup with the Bears, Cleveland plays a vulnerable Bills team before a matchup with the Steelers, one of the three teams to completely shut Garrett down this season. After that, it's not out of the question that Cleveland could shut Garrett down with the playoffs out of reach. In fact, the odds aren't terrible that they'd choose to shut him down pretty much the moment he passes the record.
So where does that leave us? Garrett's 17-game pace is at 28 sacks, but with all the factors working against him, the actual finishing point for him could legitimately sit anywhere from 24 to 30. And while I would like to be as bullish as possible on Garrett's race for NFL immortality, predicting five solo sacks in any given game is a bold proposition. To wit, I'd put the safe number at 26 total sacks by season's end, at an average of just under two per game.