There was a lot of debate ahead of the 2018 NFL Draft about who the best quarterback from that class was. Some people thought it was Baker Mayfield, who went No. 1 overall to the Cleveland Browns. Some thought the league was, like, way way way too on Lamar Jackson. Others, like...uhh...me..., thought Josh Rosen's intelligence was going to make him into a future star. Sam Darnold was not high on the list given his initial destination in New York.
I'm not sure a single person, though, expected the reality: Jackson and Josh Allen would become top-five NFL quarterbacks, but it would be Darnold who became the first quarterback from the class to win a Super Bowl while playing for his fifth franchise. Fifth! (I'm not going to lie to y'all — I was prepared to write "fourth franchise" because I temporarily forgot the 49ers days). But if Darnold's the first, who will be the second...if, I suppose, there is a second.
Sam Darnold's path to a Super Bowl
I'm sure the New York Jets thought Sam Darnold could be a Super Bowl-winning quarterback when they drafted him at No. 3 overall in 2018, but his tenure there was marked by losses, inconsistency and turnovers, and in 2021, the team gave up after three seasons, shipping Darnold to the Panthers for a second, fourth and sixth round pick.
Darnold's Panthers' tenure started off well. Four games in, I was pretty convinced that Darnold was having his breakout. Freed from the tyranny of the Jets, it was time for Darnold to show he was a star. Except...it wasn't. His play faltered, capped off by three consecutive starts without a touchdown pass. In the third of those games, Darnold suffered a shoulder injury that knocked him out for five weeks. Carolina then went on to acquire another 2018 quarterback, Baker Mayfield, and Darnold lost the starting role, beginning what should have been a career as a backup quarterback.
Fast forward to 2024, when Darnold was supposed to back up rookie J.J. McCarthy before injury forced the Vikings to start him. Instead of withering, Darnold took advantage of the strong weapons around him and had the best season of his career. The Seattle Seahawks took a shot on him in free agency before the 2025 season and he proved 2024 wasn't a fluke, and suddenly, we had NFL champion Sam Darnold, as improbable as it seems.
Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen?
Both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson entered the NFL with major questions that depressed their draft stock. For Allen, it was if he would ever be able to rein in his wildest instincts — was he simply an inaccurate gunslinger who would wash out after two seasons? For Jackson, the concern was that he was more of an athlete than a quarterback, a concern that frankly always gave off some bad vibes, considering who the loudest voices voicing the concerns were.
There may have been some validity to both, but ultimately, both quarterbacks proved they weren't just NFL material, but were top-five quarterbacks. Jackson has won two MVPs. Allen has won one. But neither has won, or even played in, a Super Bowl, in large part because the AFC has run through Kansas City.
Season | AFC Super Bowl Representative |
|---|---|
2025 | Patriots |
2024 | Chiefs |
2023 | Chiefs |
2022 | Chiefs |
2021 | Bengals |
2020 | Chiefs |
2019 | Chiefs |
2018 | Patriots |
The Chiefs, though, have injury concerns now with quarterback Patrick Mahomes as well as a very, very rough salary cap situation this offseason. The AFC feels more open, and I don't trust the New England Patriots to get back to the Super Bowl. 2026 could be the year for one of these two.
The concern, though, is that both teams are in transition, as both moved on from their long-time head coaches this offseason. The Buffalo Bills maintained some continuity on offense by promoting OC Joe Brady, but the team also has a serious need for one or more high-end wide receivers to help Allen out.
The Baltimore Ravens, meanwhile, missed the playoffs this past season. Part of that was because Jackson missed four games, but he was also only 6-7 in his starts and posted his lowest completion percentage since 2022.
Neither is a lock to even make a Super Bowl, but at this point, Allen feels a bit closer. Even with New England's 2025 success, I'd rather play in the AFC East than the AFC North, and the Bills are better prepared for 2026 success, which matters because the window won't be open forever with either player. I want the one who has the higher chance of doing it now rather than betting on the player who might be able to do it later on.
Could Baker Mayfield provide a shock title?
The Browns drafted Baker Mayfield No. 1 overall and then, in classic Browns fashion, gave up on him way too early to instead make one of the worst trades in NFL history, with the team landing Deshaun Watson.
After bouncing around in 2022, Mayfield landed with the Buccaneers in 2023 and saw his career revitalized. He's made the Pro Bowl in two of the past three seasons and has led the Bucs to two playoff appearances.
But Mayfield is also coming off his worst season with Tampa. Look at how his numbers dropped from 2024 to 2025.
Record | Completion Percentage | Passing Yards | Passing Touchdowns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 10-7 | 71.4 | 4,500 | 41 |
2025 | 8-9 | 63.2 | 3,693 | 26 |
With Tampa's offense also needing to replace — either now or in the near future — wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, there's not much reason to think Tampa has a Super Bowl window, especially with the rest of the NFC South looking up at the moment. The Panthers just won the division. The Saints may have struck gold with quarterback Tyler Shough. The Falcons made a great hire with Kevin Stefanski and are a QB away from competing for the division. Mayfield was a good story, but 2024 was probably his last real chance to make a Super Bowl run.
What about Josh Rosen? Hahahahahahahaha.
Four of the five first-round quarterbacks from the 2018 NFL Draft are starting in the NFL. Could the one who isn't currently starting make a comeback and win a Super Bowl before the rest?
LOL, no. No, that will not happen.
I wanted it to! I loved the idea of Rosen, but the reality was that he wasn't an NFL quarterback. Entering the league with an Arizona Cardinals team that basically blew everything up a year later certainly didn't help, but his lack of mobility and his struggles to adjust to the speed of the NFL game helped even less.
And the next 2018 Super Bowl-winning QB is...
So, we've identified Josh Allen as the most likely 2018 quarterback to win a Super Bowl, but now for the big question: will he actually win one?
This is a tough one, but I think the answer is yes. I expect the Chiefs' dynasty to resume at some point, but with Mahomes coming off a knee injury and the team lacking an easy way to improve in 2026 due to the cap situation, next year's AFC is Buffalo's for the taking. The teams that were good this season almost feel like flukes, and the Bills might enter the offseason with negative cap space, but it shouldn't be too hard to fix that, putting Buffalo in the AFC driver's seat.
This isn't guaranteed. Allen could still go down as one of the best quarterbacks to never win a Super Bowl, and Jackson can join him on that list. But if another 2018 quarterback wins a Super Bowl, my money would be on Allen.