Back when the NFL regular season was 16 games long, everything was divided up neatly. Four games in the books marked the quarter point of the season, a natural time to check in and grade each team. Just because the owners' greed has given us a 17th game doesn't mean we're going to stop, though, so with that in mind, we decided to take a look at each division and rank each first-place team by how likely they are to still be there a few months from now.
Let's work our way up by starting with the division where chaos will reign supreme, and ending with the one that already feels like a wrap.
8. Who the hell knows in the NFC West?
If you can say with any confidence which way the NFC West is going to go, you should probably quit your job and submit your application to ESPN right now. The 49ers, Seahawks and Rams are all currently 3-1, with the Cardinals lurking just behind at 2-2.
I expect the Cardinals to hang around .500 for most of the year, so if that means that one of the current teams in a tie for first will ultimately claim the division crown, then count me in. But which one?
The Niners were upset by the Jaguars last week and are dealing with their usual rash of catastrophic injuries to vitally important players. Brock Purdy has a debilitating case of turf toe, George Kittle remains out with a hamstring injury and Nick Bosa is done for the year after tearing up his right knee. Christian McCaffrey is shockingly just about the only healthy skill position player, as Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are both banged up and Brandon Aiyuk is still waiting to make his season debut after ACL surgery last November.
With San Francisco's mounting injury concerns, the Rams and Seahawks may be the best bets to win the West.
The Rams are a blocked field goal against the Eagles from being undefeated, and in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, Matthew Stafford may have the best pair of receivers in the league. The Seahawks have been extremely impressive as well, shaking off a tight Week 1 home loss to the Niners by scoring two solid road wins and embarrassing the Saints at home. Mike Macdonald's defense has yet to allow 20 points and Sam Darnold has looked extremely comfortable on his new team. I'm going with the Seahawks in a close three-way race.
7. The Chargers have their work cut out for them to remain atop the AFC West
The Chargers jumped out to a 3-0 start with wins against every divisional opponent, but while I trust Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert looks like he's made a leap, the Bolts' hold on the division lead looks much more tenuous after last week.
The Chargers have thus far survived the loss of starting left tackle Rashawn Slater in the preseason, but the injuries to the offensive line have been piling up. Mekhi Becton missed this week with a concussion, and Joe Alt went down with a high ankle sprain in Sunday's loss to the Giants. Ask the Texans or Bengals what it's like not having an O-line. It's not pretty. L.A. is also going to be without Najee Harris, who's out for the year with an Achilles tear, and star pass rusher Khalil Mack, who will miss at least a few more weeks with a dislocated elbow.
The Chiefs looked like their old explosive selves in blowing out the Ravens this weekend, and they'll have Rashee Rice back soon, too. That defense also isn't going anywhere, so if Patrick Mahomes can recapture even a little bit of his old magic, look out.
The Broncos and second-year quarterback Bo Nix looked shaky as they fell to 1-2, but they seem to have righted the ship with an easy Monday night win over the Broncos. Bettors were bullish on Denver's chances in the preseason, and it looks like they'll be very much in the mix going forward. They've been in every game, and could easily be 3-1 if not for a questionable leverage penalty against the Colts in Week 2 that gave Indy kicker Spencer Shrader a second chance to win the game.
6. The Steelers are extremely fortunate to be 3-1
The Steelers are in sole possession of first in the AFC North, but they haven't been super impressive in getting there. They're the only first-place team with a negative point differential (the Bucs are dead even), and they were lucky to escape against the still-winless Jets in Week 1.
After losing by two touchdowns at home against the Seahawks, Pittsburgh was thoroughly outplayed by the Patriots, but New England just couldn't stop giving the ball away, and those five turnovers resulted in a 21-14 Steelers win. Beating the Vikings is a good thing, especially since Aaron Rodgers and DK Metcalf really looked in sync, but that game took place in Ireland against backup quarterback Carson Wentz, so let's not plan the parade just yet.
If there's a reason to believe the Steelers can hold on, it's that nobody else in the division looks competent. The Ravens have completely fallen on their face to drop to 1-3. Their run defense is a mess, and Lamar Jackson is going to miss at least a couple of weeks with a hamstring strain. By time he's back, the gap may be too wide to overcome.
Then there are the Bengals, who have gotten waxed each of the past two weeks on the road and who won't get Joe Burrow back until December, and the Browns, who are, well, the Browns. There once was a time when Joe Flacco could win the AFC North, but those days are long gone.
5. The Colts and Jaguars are tied for first in the AFC South, but the Texans aren't done yet
The Colts and Jaguars have been two of the most surprising teams of the season, while the Texans have been one of the most disappointing. Daniel Jones has stabilized the Colts offense, cutting out Anthony Richardson's inaccuracy, which has allowed Jonathan Taylor to run wild. Trevor Lawrence and new Jags head coach Liam Coen seem like a great early fit, and if not for a loss in a weird Week 2 game against the Bengals, Jacksonville could be undefeated. Marching into San Francisco and coming out with a win was super impressive, regardless of how injured the Niners are.
The Texans got a shutout win over the toothless Titans on Sunday to finally get off the schneid. It's tough to draw many conclusions from that result, since the Titans don't look like they'll be competitive against most teams this year. Still, it was good to see CJ Stroud get his mojo back, and rookie running back Woody Marks looks like he's ready to take over backfield duties.
The Texans have won the last two AFC South titles, so they can't be counted out yet. It's not going to be easy to overcome arguably the worst offensive line in the league, though, even if DeMeco Ryans' defense is elite.
4. After a rough Week 1, the Lions are firing on all cylinders
The NFC North was football's best division last year, but the Lions still rolled to the NFC's No. 1 seed with their 15-2 record. It's looking like no walk in the park this year either, as all four teams are currently .500 or better.
Even though the competition is tough, and even though the Packers beat the Lions in Week 1, it feels like Detroit is going to put some distance between themselves and the North's other three teams. The loss of both coordinators doesn't seem to have hurt them, and they still have one of the most talented rosters in the league. They annihilated the Bears in the Ben Johnson revenge game in Week 2, then moved up and down the field at will against the Ravens in Week 3, becoming the rare team to beat Lamar Jackson in primetime. Easily taking care of business against the Browns on Sunday proved that they aren't prone to letdowns, even on short rest.
The Vikings' quarterback situation keeps them out of the conversation to challenge the Lions, and though the Bears have bounced back with two wins the last two weeks, we saw the disparity between these two teams in Week 2. That leaves the Packers, and though Green Bay looked like Super Bowl contenders through the first couple of weeks, they've looked very flawed the last two weeks in a shocking road loss to the Browns and a tie against the Cowboys in which they allowed 40 points to an offense that was without CeeDee Lamb.
Jordan Love is too inconsistent to put up 13 or 14 wins, and that's what it's going to take to hang with the Lions.
3. Even while banged up, the Bucs have been the class of the NFC South
Like the 49ers, the Bucs have dealt with major injuries to start the year. They just got Chris Godwin back, but their receiver room is still depleted as Mike Evans nurses a hamstring injury. All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs missed the first three games, and Baker Mayfield has been operating at less than 100 percent.
Unlike the Niners, the Bucs don't have nearly as much to worry about in their division. The Saints are winless and on a one-way trip to the No. 1 pick. The Panthers just got crushed by the Patriots, and their only win came against the one team in the NFC South with a chance to hang with Tampa, the Falcons. Oh yeah, that score was 30-0 and got so ugly that Michael Penix Jr. was benched late for Kirk Cousins.
The Bucs have by no means been dominant, but with Mayfield under center, they're extremely dangerous at the end of games. Baker led game-winning drives in three straight weeks, and he nearly completed a furious comeback against the Eagles on Sunday. The Falcons are far too inconsistent from one week to the next to keep up with the Bucs when they get healthy.
2. It hasn't always been pretty, but the Eagles know how to win
Everyone is trying to speak the Eagles' downfall into existence. Their offense is boring, they have no chemistry, the Tush Push is an affront to American exceptionalism ... you name it. Through it all, the Birds just keep winning. Every other team in the NFC has a loss on their resume, but Philly has continued to stack wins while playing their C+ game. That's bad news for the rest of the division, and the rest of the league.
Can anyone in the East hang with the Eagles over the course of an entire season? It doesn't look like it. The Cowboys are a glorified Arena League team with their prolific offense and nonexistent defense. The Giants got a spark from Jaxson Dart to beat the Chargers this week, but after a trip to New Orleans on Sunday, the schedule gets downright diabolical, and they'll be without Malik Nabers the rest of the way.
Outside of AJ Brown sabotaging the Eagles from within, it seems the only hope to keep them from becoming the first repeat NFC East champs since 2004 is the Commanders. Washington is already in a two-game hole, though, and if Jayden Daniels can't come back soon and play at least as well as he did in his electric rookie year, this division looks like a runaway.
1. The Bills are going to lock up the AFC East early
Sometimes, things don't have to be that complicated. The Bills are who we all thought they were, and so is everyone else in the division. The Jets just keep on Jets-ing. The Dolphins can't defend the pass, Tua Tagovailoa can't stop throwing back-breaking interceptions, and now Tyreek Hill is done for the year.
Mike Vrabel is turning the Patriots around, but New England is still a year or two away. Drake Maye has looked good in his second season, but is he ready to go toe-to-toe with Josh Allen? The Pats have already spotted Buffalo two games and have to travel to Highmark Stadium for a primetime matchup on Sunday Night Football. If somehow they win that one, then maybe they can make this interesting. That's a tall order, though.
The Bills have won five straight AFC East titles and should easily make it six.