It's been a busy NFL offseason for almost all 32 teams, but the AFC Playoff picture has gotten shaken up even more late in the offseason. When you look at the seven teams from the conference that qualfied for the postseason a year ago, two of them have made major additions late in the offseason. The Pittsburgh Steelers, of course, signed Aaron Rodgers to be under center officially, while the Baltimore Ravens then beefed up their secondary even more with the addition of recent cap casualty Jaire Alexander.
Of course, every team in the AFC has been chasing Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs basically every year over the past half-decade. And the Buffalo Bills have been close behind as well. Yet, with these massive improvements, when you start to look at the AFC Playoff teams from a year ago, things have changed throughout the septet of teams.
How do they now stack up against one another? Let's re-rank the seven AFC Playoff teams from last year to see just how much the calculus has now changed.
7. Houston Texans
2024 AFC Playoff Seed: 4
In an AFC where fans can point to major improvements for a lot of playoff contenders, I fully believe the Houston Texans got worse this offseason. Shipping out Laremy Tunsil and replacing him with Cam Robinson, while also bringing in middling veterans along the rest of the line, feels like a patchwork project to fix the offensive line that really ust shuffled it. Sure, Christian Kirk is a nice add, as are Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, but will C.J. Stroud even have time to get them the ball.
The defense under DeMeco Ryans will still be a force, especially with a sneaky great addition of C.J. Gardner-Johnson to the secondary. However, you also have to consider that the AFC South as a whole should improve based on this offseason as well. I don't think it's a lock the Texans run away with that division again, and that is, in part, due to their own misguided offseason approach.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
2024 AFC Playoff Seed: 5
Make no mistake, the Los Angeles Chargers are still going to be a very good team. However, I'm not sure there were enough meaningful upgrades, especially in relation to the rest of the AFC, to have them anywhere other than sixth. Am I supposed to be moved by adding Mike Williams and Tre Harris to the receiving corps? How much are guys like Da'Shawn Hand and Donte Jackson as the key defensive signings actually going to help?
The addition of Omarion Hampton to bolster the run game with Justin Herbert is built out of Jim Harbaugh's DNA, without question. The Chargers are likely going to be a playoff team once again. However, in a conference (and a division, for that matter) with notable improvements to almost all of the top teams, LA simply may not have done enough.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
2024 AFC Playoff Seed: 6
Do I think that adding Aaron Rodgers means that the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to win a Super Bowl? Almost surely not. What we've seen from Rodgers in the past few seasons has shown a decline from the perennial MVP-caliber form that we were accustomed to in Green Bay, and that started even before the 2023 Achilles injury with the Jets. Having said that, I do believe he's still clearly an upgrade for this offense and that, even with shallow depth, replacing George Pickens with DK Metcalf is also an upgrade for the passing game.
At the same time, the Steelers' calling card is still going to be their defense, assuming they get things sorted out with T.J. Watt. I love the floor of Pittsburgh but still have questions about the ceiling, even with Rodgers. Because of that, I don't think I can justifiably have them higher than this, though I do think they've done enough to elevate ahead of Houston and LA.
4. Denver Broncos
2024 AFC Playoff Seed: 7
While it remains to be seen if the Denver Broncos are fully ready to challenge the rival Chiefs in the AFC West, this is a team that shouldn't be overlooked. Bo Nix shined as a rookie under Sean Payton's watch and now has a better supporting cast after the free agent additions of Evan Engram and J.K. Dobbins, both of him fit right into what we've seen Payton thrive with historically. Furthermore, the defensive newcomers in Jahdae Barron, Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga all upgrade a unit that was already one of the league's best a year ago.
Having said that, the questions about catching the Chiefs persist through the rest of the top of the conference as well. How good is Nix beyond having Payton's direction? Is this wide receiver group good enough to elevate in the biggest moments? These are viable questions that, while the Broncos have clearly elevated from last year, don't quite get them into the mix with the leading triumverate in the AFC.
3. Baltimore Ravens
2024 AFC Playoff Seed: 3
The Baltimore Ravens are obviously the other team to make a big addition late in the offseason, signing Jaire Alexander to a one-year deal. I'll be the first to admit that I'm dubious of how that'll work out. Alexander was let go from Green Bay because of his inability to stay on the field, something that the Ravens have already experienced with Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins in recent years. Even still, the upside of the move could give Baltimore one of the league's best secondaries if everyone stays on the field.
Ultimately, I do think the Ravens are a better team than they were a year ago. DeAndre Hopkins isn't the player he once was, but he's extremely valuable to Lamar Jackson and this offense in particular. They're also deeper in the front seven and secondary. What stands out, though, is that I'm still not quite sure that Baltimore has done enough to usurp the two clear top dogs in the conference.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
2024 AFC Playoff Seed: 1
It's probably blasphemous to not have the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 1 to some people, but it's really a 1A, 1B situation with them and the Buffalo Bills — and I currently think Andy Reid's club is the 1B. Sending out Joe Thuney and bringing in Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore might've been necessary, but it doesn't guarantee that the offensive line is fixed. It could be, but that issue is something that bit Kansas City royally last year.
At the same time, the defense being able to retain Nick Bolton and the overall core is key, as will be the return of Rashee Rice along with Jalen Royals entering the fray. The Chiefs are still going to be a tough matchup week in and week out, but I do think that the Super Bowl exposed some serious flaws and that the Chiefs' biggest competition in the AFC has now made strides to take advantage of those, especially if the O-line isn't immediately remedied.
1. Buffalo Bills
2024 AFC Playoff Seed: 2
When you look at a lot of what the Buffalo Bills did this offseason, it feels like it had beating the Chiefs in mind. Improving the defense with Maxwell Hairston and T.J. Sanders in the draft while also adding depth and upside with Joey Bosa and Larry Ogunjobi, among others, is meant to combat Kansas City in the way the Eagles did in the Super Bowl. And I love how this Bills team has gone about doing so.
More than that, though, I think this Bills offense is going to level up yet again. We know how damn good Josh Allen is at this point. What stands out, though, is that this might be the deepest receiving corps we've seen in Buffalo for years with Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore joining the party. That also doesn't account for a potential second-year leap from Keon Coleman. When you put that all together, though, I'm eyeing these Bills as the team to beat in the conference now.