In a historical context, the 2024 Vikings and 2025 Seahawks are two very different teams, built to win in completely different ways. The one aspect they have in common is that both are quarterbacked by Sam Darnold, who led each team to 14 wins, respectively.
You might wonder how a quarterback of that magnitude is let go to begin with. Well, the Vikings season ended horribly in an NFC Wild Card round defeat to the Los Angeles Rams. Darnold looked flustered, and a narrative was reborn. As great as Darnold's 2024 season was, Kevin O'Connell along with the Vikings front office did not believe there was anything unique about him that couldn't be replicated. They couldn't have been more wrong.
QBs with back-to-back 14+ win seasons in NFL history:
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 4, 2026
• Tom Brady (2003-2004)
• Sam Darnold (2024-2025)
That’s the list. https://t.co/VKtzhXl33x pic.twitter.com/wSrqvTUArk
Why did the Minnesota Vikings let Sam Darnold walk?
The Vikings were open to bringing back Darnold, but only at their asking price. Minnesota, fresh off a 14-win season thanks to a quarterback no one expected to reach Pro Bowl status, wrongly assumed they could use that same formula to turn their chosen quarterback, former first-round pick JJ McCarthy, into an elite talent in his own right.
If Darnold had a smaller market, then perhaps he would've been open to a Minnesota return on a one-year deal only to retest his luck in 2026. That wasn't the case, however, and the Seahawks backed Darnold with a three-year, $100 million contract. The Vikings were never going to match that.
JJ McCarthy's job could be on the line in 2026
In turn, it was a clean break for both sides with no harm done. The Vikings helped revive Darnold's career, and they now had McCarthy to worry about. Of course, it hasn't gone according to plan for Minnesota. McCarthy remains unproven and had some real hiccups in his first full season under center. The Vikings won't make the playoffs this season, and their late-2025 success has mostly been driven by a strong defense.
Meanwhile, Darnold's Seahawks are atop the NFC. Should McCarthy continue down this trajectory, he'll be remembered as just another in a long line of 'chosen one' quarterbacks to fall short in Minneapolis. And even worse, he cost Darnold, a player who proved he could lead the Vikings to the precipice of contention, a chance to take the next step.
How much blame falls on Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell?
Ultimately, the decision to cut bait with Darnold and ride with McCarthy was made by Kevin O'Connell, and executed by the front office. If O'Connell hadn't been overconfident in his young signal-caller, then the Vikings could've matched the Seahawks offer for Darnold and then some.
But as great of an offensive mind as O'Connell is, even he needs a reality check every now and then. The Vikings should know better than any franchise (minus the Browns, of course) that quarterbacks don't grow on trees. Instead, they've cycled through Kirk Cousins, Darnold and McCarthy in just a couple of seasons. They're credited with reviving Daniel Jones career, even though they got next to nothing out of him on the field. Heck, O'Connell even made Josh Dobbs look serviceable. That's all well and good, but developing a young QB from scratch is a different ball game.
Kevin O'Connell's reputation is on the line in 2026
The Vikings can't – and shouldn't – fire KOC anytime soon. He is one of the better offensive minds in the NFL and would be scooped up in a second were he let go. However, what O'Connell has going for him is his reputation as a quarterback whisperer. Remember Darnold, Jones, and Dobbs? They all have a new lease on life thanks to O'Connell, at least in part. Heck, even Aaron Rodgers wanted to play for the Vikings last offseason, all thanks to O'Connell and the rep he's built around the league.
If McCarthy fails and Darnold continues to ascend this postseason, some of that good will goes out the window. That would mean O'Connell made the wrong call.
Vikings star Justin Jefferson needs a quarterback he can rely on
Justin Jefferson is arguably the most talented wide receiver in the NFL when healthy. However, he's had the least productive season of his career in 2025, much thanks to shoddy quarterback play. McCarthy, Max Brosmer and anyone else under center hasn't been getting Jefferson the ball at the clip he's used to. That wasn't a problem with Darnold or Cousins before him.
Justin Jefferson's prime is on the line in 2026
When asked if he'd be open to playing with McCarthy again next season, Jefferson gave the right answer with a hint of his new reality.
"That's not my job," Jefferson said, referencing player personnel decisions. "[But] of course I would love for him to be here. Of course I would love for him to be the quarterback. Especially off this year. I feel like he needs to show everybody and prove to everybody that he is that top-tier quarterback. So I would love to have him. I would love to work with him and show everybody that he is that No. 1 guy."
Jefferson will never be blamed for the Vikings poor quarterback play. Anyone with eyes can see this season is on McCarthy and O'Connell, rather than the 26-year-old LSU product.
Jefferson signed a four-year, $140 million extension after the 2024 season, so he isn't going anywhere. He is attached at the hip to McCarthy's development, whether he likes it or not. The longer McCarthy takes to form a real connection with his top weapon – one Darnold formed with relative ease – the more likely it is that Jefferson's prime years could be wasted.
Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah could be fired for parting with Sam Darnold
While Kwesi Adofo-Mensah had plenty of intel prior to letting Darnold walk to a fellow NFC contender, it was his decision at the end of the day. Because of that, he has to wear most of the blame when Darnold succeeds. Perhaps the Seahawks will flame out in the postseason, much like the Vikings did in 2024 with Darnold behind center, and Adofo-Mensah will be vindicated. For now, it's hard to see that happening anytime soon.
When the Vikings season ended in humiliating fashion for Darnold, the writing was already on the wall that Adofo-Mensah would move on from him. Minnesota had drafted a true successor at the position in McCarthy a year prior. Darnold was an afterthought.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah let confidence get the best of him
Adofo-Mensah's confidence that the Vikings quarterback program could simply copy and paste Darnold's success onto McCarthy was flawed judgement.
“Every option is afforded to us,” Adofo-Mensah said last February. “When we did the move originally, we wanted to create optionality. And part of the optionality was believing and betting on a guy who was young, talented — believing in our infrastructure to be able to do the things we can do with the quarterbacks. So, we’re now in a position where we have options. And we’ll continue to work those options, figure out the best way for the Vikings to move forward.”
Adofo-Mensah continued at that press conference, declaring that he was excited for what the future could bring for Darnold, but not guaranteeing it would come in Minnesota. Eight quarters of football determined Darnold's fate with the Vikings. He lost to the same two teams twice in the same season. It was just Darnold's first in Minnesota's system. Who knows how much he could've improved in Year 2 thanks to KOC?
Either way, Adofo-Mensah will take the fall if McCarthy flames out. Failing to find a franchise quarterback – especially when one was sitting right under his nose – is a mistake he may not come back from.