Another week of NFL games has concluded, and across the league, most teams are either feeling really great or really terrible about themselves — with very few in the middle. The increased parity of today's NFL can have that effect, as unlike most other sports, teams practice all week to play a single time. Win, and it's a sign that you're moving in the right direction. Lose, and it's a referendum on your very existence.
Now that there's a chill in the air and we barely need two hands to count how many games each team has remaining, those wins take on even more meaning and the losses force teams to take a good, hard look at the panic button. Week 11 certainly did ust that, as teams like the Rams, Broncos, Eagles and Bills made a statement in their featured matchups, while others ... did not.
Let's begin our round of overreactions with two teams that failed an important test, and what it means for them going forward.
The Lions and Chiefs are in serious trouble
The two teams that finished tied for the best record in the NFL last year are not faring nearly as well this time around. Both the Chiefs and Lions came up short on Sunday in similar ways — by having their supposedly dynamic offenses smothered over 60 minutes.
The Chiefs spent last season F'ing around but rarely finding out. They went a record 12-0 in one-score games, but regression has hit like a truck as they're now 0-5 in the same spots this time around. They continue to do very little on the ground, and Patrick Mahomes, despite now having all his weapons back healthy, just doesn't look like the same guy that won two MVPs.
The defense is still quite good, fourth in the league in points allowed in fact. Yet here the Chiefs are at 5-5 and on the outside looking in on the playoff picture after a rare post-bye loss. If the Colts march into Arrowhead on Sunday and drop the home team below .500, then it will officially be panic time.
The Lions would also be left at home if the season ended today, and all of the positivity that came out of Dan Campbell taking over play-calling duties and guiding the team to 44 points against the Commanders last week has immediately evaporated. The cold weather once again got to Jared Goff as he went an Anthony Richardson-like 14-of-37, and the uber-dependable Amon-Ra St. Brown caught only two of the 12 balls thrown his way. Those gross numbers don't even tell the whole story, as Goff was just 1-of-14 when facing pressure. If the Lions even do make the playoffs, it's looking increasingly likely that they'll get one home game at most on their road through the NFC, and that's not a recipe for Goff success.
Ben Johnson's departure didn't seem to hit the Lions very hard earlier in the season, but now they're looking like a team that's running out of ideas. They can still put up points on bad defenses; then again, most teams can. Can they score in hostile territory against a team that's able to push them around physically? It doesn't look like it.
Week 18's win-and-get in primetime game will be ... Panthers-Bucs?!
The NFL scriptwriters usually have something good up their sleeves for the Week 18 primetime flex game. We almost always get a win-and-you're-in, loser-goes-home kind of scenario, and this year's schedule has no shortage of candidates.
The Bears and Lions will meet in Chicago in a game that could decide the NFC North. The Ravens and Steelers may likewise be fighting for a division crown. Other potential goodies include the Chargers visiting the Broncos, the Seahawks traveling to San Francisco and even the Texans hosting the Colts.
After watching Week 11 unfold, my bold take is that the final nationally televised game of the regular season will be played by the Panthers and Bucs. I feel crazy even typing that, but where's the lie? Dave Canales has Carolina believing after an overtime win in Atlanta to sweep the season series from the Falcons, while the Bucs have sagged under the weight of big expectations and numerous injuries to fall back toward the pack in the NFC South.
Tampa has now dropped three of four after losing to the Bills on Sunday, and though they have an easier schedule than the Panthers down the stretch, the two teams will still meet twice in the final three weeks.
Bryce Young turned a corner against a good Falcons defense that came into the day top-three in the league in passing yards allowed. The former No. 1 overall pick threw for 448 (!) yards, and he calmly led the Panthers 65 yards down the field in the final three minutes to tie the game.
The NFC South looked like it would be a Tampa runaway as Baker Mayfield made an early bid at winning MVP, but it's getting tighter by the week.
Josh Allen alone makes the Bills the team to beat in the AFC
The Bills are not a perfect team, and they've laid some real eggs this year. With that being said, if someone threatened to body slam you through a table in a parking lot and forced you to pick the AFC winner right now, they have to be the choice, don't they? And it's all because of Josh Allen.
Allen went nuclear against the Bucs on Sunday, beating them with his legs and arm in a way that caused Todd Bowles to be even more expressionless on the sidelines than he usually is (if that's even possible). With the Patriots rolling and 1.5 games up with the tiebreaker thanks to their head-to-head win, Buffalo's customary AFC East crown looks like a long shot. Look at the rest of the AFC though and it's clear that Allen gives the Bills the largest margin for error of any team.
The Chiefs and Ravens aren't even in as of now. The Colts can't defend the pass and are one poorly timed Daniel Jones throwback game from falling flat. The Broncos have been winning by the skin of their teeth most weeks. Nobody is picking the Jaguars or Chargers with a straight face.
Allen doesn't even have many weapons to throw to, but it doesn't matter. Keon Coleman was suspended for the Bucs game for missing a team meeting. Dalton Kincaid was out again with a strained hamstring. So what? He even threw a couple early interceptions and still led the Bills to six touchdowns and a field goal on their other nine possessions. He's going to keep coming at you all game long, and few teams can handle that kind of barrage or answer with enough points of their own.
As long as No. 17 is playing, the Bills are the AFC's team to beat.
The Seahawks can win the Super Bowl, as long as Sam Darnold doesn't blow it
The big headline coming out of the titanic NFC West showdown between the Seahawks and Rams was that L.A. has that Super Bowl look again, while the ghosts Sam Darnold sees are going to keep Seattle from reaching their ceiling. Maybe that's true, but what I saw was a game in which the Seahawks outplayed the Rams on both sides of the ball — with the exception, of course, of the most important position.
Darnold threw four picks on the day, and time and again the Rams kept Seattle out of the end zone. And even still, Jason Myers had a long kick lined up in the waning seconds that would have given the Seahawks the win.
Winning is what matters in the NFL, but when projecting for the future, you have to take into account the likelihood of certain things happening again. The Rams scored a touchdown on three of their four red zone trips. The Seahawks only converted one in four. As bad as Darnold was, he's not going to throw four picks again, either. So what do the rest of the numbers tell us?
The Seahawks outgained the Rams 414 to 249. They also decisively won the first down battle 26 to 12, ran 29 more offensive plays and dominated time of possession by almost a 2:1 margin. All of that isn't fluky, especially when they did so on the road.
The Rams are legit, and they have what it takes to go all the way. Don't rule out the Seahawks just because of one ugly quarterback performance, though. Top to bottom, this roster can hang with anybody. If Darnold can avoid another meltdown, that may be enough.