I tried. I tried to be optimistic this offseason about what the Houston Texans were doing along the offensive line. Following a 2024 season where it felt like quarterback C.J. Stroud was under pressure every time he dropped back, Houston went full rebuild along the line and entered the 2025 season with four new starters.
Were those starters household names? No, but there was this sense that anything general manager Nick Caserio did with the offensive line had to be an improvement, simply because last year's unit was so bad. So when Caserio basically went to the thrift store to construct the line, I followed, because he's done an excellent job bargain shopping on the defensive side of the ball. Surely, he could do the same to fix Houston's biggest problem.
But after Monday's loss to the Buccaneers, it's time to face a difficult truth: Houston's offensive line is still bad. Caserio's approach has not worked and the Texans sit at 0-2. The AFC South favorites are already two games back of a team that everyone thought would be bad this year, the Indianapolis Colts, and with no real way to fix the line, it's hard to imagine Houston having a huge turnaround here.
Houston's offensive line issues
It's a tale as old as the franchise is. From the very first season in Texans history being marred by Tony Boselli retiring after being the team's first pick in the expansion draft, failure to properly protect the quarterback is baked into Houston's DNA.
This offseason, Caserio didn't spend a lot of money to fix the line, but he did try bringing in a number of new faces. In Week 1, four of the five starters on the line were new members of the Texans. That's now down to three of the five after two weeks because of an injury to center Jake Andrews, but the point stands — Houston didn't spend big to bring in high-end linemen, but the team did make a lot of moves in hopes that something would stick.
Unfortunately, nothing has stuck. C.J. Stroud has been sacked six times through two games and has lost the second-most yards on sacks behind only Cam Ward. Now, some of that yardage stuff is on Stroud, who needs to get the ball out quicker, but it's hard to do that when your pocket is virtually never clean.
If you're looking for potential good news, rookie left tackle Aireontay Ersery has looked solid. Against Tampa, Ersery didn't allow any hits and didn't commit a penalty. If he keeps improving as the year goes along, that's good news, since left tackle is such an important position.
But the interior of the line is probably too big an issue for Houston to overcome. The trio of Laken Tomlinson, Jarrett Patterson and Ed Ingram has struggled, and Houston doesn't really have many options to replace those guys, aside from Andrews taking back over at center once healthy. Maybe the Texans could try Juice Scruggs again at one of the interior spots, but there's a reason he's not already starting. Maybe they can bring Trent Brown off the practice squad and kick Blake Fisher inside?
Stroud doesn't look like the player who took the league by storm as a rookie. Some of that is on Stroud. Some of that is on questionable playcalling so far from new offensive coordinator Nick Caley. Some of it is on the fact that Houston can't stop the pass rush. Everyone deserves blame, but the line issues feel the most dire simply because it's harder to see a path out of it. Caley can improve as a playcaller. Stroud has shown he knows how to win football games. This line? As the saying goes, the only way through is through. Houston has to live with it and hope something can be done in the offseason.
So, the Colts are the AFC South favorites now, right?
"Favorites" is a tough word to use when you consider that the Colts are starting Daniel Jones at quarterback. Jones has been excellent so far, but there's always the chance he turns back into the Daniel Jones of olde, and the Colts run comes crashing down.
But, at least for now, Indianapolis is playing the best football in the division. For Houston to catch up and win its third consecutive AFC South title, the team is going to need the Colts to stumble. A two-game deficit is far from insurmountable, but it's still a rough spot to be in through two games.
Indianapolis has been playing at an insane level offensively, with the team not even punting the ball yet through two games. Maybe this is just what happens when Daniel Jones finally has a good group of weapons around him, or maybe it's just a really lucky run. Miami's defense also made Drake Maye look like a star in Week 2, so it might simply be that Jones excelled in one easy matchup and then managed to have a second good game against the Broncos.
Whatever it is, two competing facts remain true. First, the Colts have a good roster that just needs a good quarterback. Second, Jones has rarely shown in his NFL career that he can be a good quarterback. Maybe he's having a 2024 Sam Darnold-style revival this year, but I think the old Jones rears his head at some point. The AFC South isn't decided yet. It's just that who the favorite is going forward this year has switched from Houston to Indianapolis.
(As for the other two teams, the 0-2 Titans have too many defensive problems to contend despite Cam Ward looking good so far, and the 1-1 Jaguars are a weird team that I frankly can't figure out. They picked off Bengals backup quarterback Jake Browning three times this week and still lost.)
Let's predict the Texans record
Houston should get its first win of the year on Sunday against the Jaguars and should also follow that up with another division win against the Titans to move to 2-2.
But then come the Ravens, Houston's biggest Kryptonite. It's hard to imagine that game even being competitive, much less a win for Houston. Then you're on the road against a Seattle defense that's played well, and then you face the 49ers. There's a good chance Houston sits at 2-4 at that point.
Overall, I've revised down my preseason expectations. I originally thought the Texans could go 11-6 on the season. Now, it's looking more like 8-9 or 9-8. If Jones crashes back to earth, that might be good enough to win the AFC South, but it's still a major disappointment for a team that should have been positioned to take a leap to the next level of contender if it had just fixed its offensive line.