Here's a sight you don't see every day: prior to Week 13, the Chiefs were currently out of the NFL's playoff picture. And not just that: Kansas City is third in its own division, with multiple runners up from other divisions crowding the field ahead.
It's odd to see such a dynastic team, for lack of a better word or phrase, fall apart this quickly. Just a year ago, the AFC ran through Arrowhead – as simple as the laws of physics. And yet, here we are, a year removed from five Super Bowl appearances in six seasons, and the Chiefs are in danger of missing the playoffs.
How the Chiefs can make the playoffs
Let's be frank: for the first time in nearly a decade, the Chiefs are not going to win the AFC West title. They basically nailed that coffin shut when Dallas brought them back down to 6-6 on Thanksgiving Day. But the loss gets even worse when you remember that starting left tackle Josh Simmons is now on IR after leaving the game in a cast.
This leaves Kansas City with a very tough schedule leading up to the playoffs. In a vacuum, they can be assured of at least two more wins, as their defense alone can carry them past the Titans in Week 16 and the Raiders in Week 18. This, however, leaves three other matchups that are all incredibly easy to lose. The Texans' pass rush was scary enough without Simmons' injury, and even if they make it past them, the Chiefs have two other divisional games to look forward to: one each against the Chargers and Broncos.
As for predicting the results of those matchups, the most optimistic outlook they can receive from Mahomes' ability to go Super Saiyan gives them four wins out of five: two for free against the Titans and Raiders, as well as tough wins over Houston and Los Angeles. This would put their record at 10-7 to end the season, just barely scraping into a Wild Card spot. But that's just in a vacuum.
The other AFC Wild Card contenders
Los Angeles Chargers
The AFC West's second seed is surprisingly vulnerable given the injuries they've sustained all over the roster and a bad loss to Jacksonville before their bye. However, that Week 12 bye couldn't come at a better time -- just before a soft matchup with the Raiders. With any luck, Los Angeles is recharged after a week off, and even if they drop one to the Chiefs in Week 15, it's not hard to see the two at least tying for the second seed at season's end.
Predicted record: 10-7
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are currently in possession of the AFC North lead, but it is a tenuous grasp. The Ravens have been brought back to life and are only half a game behind, while Pittsburgh faces a bit of a gauntlet to end the season. Between facing the Ravens twice, the Bills and Lions, there is a world in which the Steelers can go 2-2 while also picking up two freebies on the Dolphins and Browns.
Predicted record: 10-7
Baltimore Ravens
The other half of the AFC North race has a much tougher schedule to close out the season. If they drop even a single game to Pittsburgh, Baltimore's chances at playoff contention are done, as two of their three other games are against rock solid playoff teams in Green Bay and New England. Don't be surprised if the Ravens' season ends in disappointment.
Predicated record: 8-9
Buffalo Bills
The AFC East might not be theirs this year, but the Bills did enough in the early season to feast at its end. They're guaranteed at least three more wins against the Browns, Jets, and Bengals, meaning they only have to win one game against either Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, or New England to get to at least 11 wins. Josh Allen can, and will, get them there.
Predicted record: 12-5
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars, while at 7-4, face a sneakily tough schedule to finish the season. They split three freebies from the Jets and Titans (twice) with three matchups against division leaders: one against the Broncos, and their two with the Colts. If Trevor Lawrence can pick it up even a little bit to match how dominant the Jaguars are on the ground, they'll walk out of this home stretch with four more wins and a playoff spot.
Predicted record: 11-6
Houston Texans
This is the true wild card, of every single bubble contender. The Texans, odd as they are, have a defense that can truly put them in contention with the best teams in the league. The only other defense that is also a top five unit in rushing yards, passing yards, and points allowed is the Denver Broncos, and the Texans' offense has picked it up as of late. You can expect them to potentially pick up at least three more wins to finish out the season.