No two ways about it, the Kansas City Chiefs had no choice but to eventually lock up Trey Smith on a long-term deal. While they had his rights under the franchise tag regardless, the decision to trade Joe Thuney this offseason put all of the franchise's eggs in the Smith basket. They needed to secure the long-term protection of Patrick Mahomes on at least one side of Creed Humphrey. But now that they've done that, general manager Brett Veach still has to be sweating.
Both by necessity to keep the Chiefs' future intact and for the quality of player Smith has been, Veach couldn't reasonably justify not handing out the four-year, $94 million contract with $70 million guaranteed (AAV of $23.5 million). At the same time, though, sometimes, deals of this magnitude are all about context in terms of how they age or are graded moving forward. For Veach and the Chiefs, that's where things get complicated.
As mentioned, Kansas City elected to retain Smith but create some cap space by trading Joe Thuney to the Chicago Bears. While Thuney is six years older than Smith, that decision still seems a bit worrisome, especially after Chicago was able to negotiate a two-year extension with the All-Pro guard at $17.5 average annual value. That means the Chiefs are paying $6 million more per season to a player in Smith who's been great but also simply hasn't been at the level of the player they traded, Thuney, to make room for Smith's new money.
Trey Smith contract is a massive risk for Chiefs GM Brett Veach
One of the luxuries that the Chiefs had for the length of Smith's rookie contract was simply that, as a sixth-round pick in the 2021 draft, he was unbelievably cheap. That allowed Kansas City to have Thuney, Humphrey and Smith comprise probably the best interior offensive line in the league. Now that Smith has to be paid, that changes the calculus.
When you look back over the past few years, Thuney has simply been a better guard than Smith. He was PFF's seventh-highest graded guard in the NFL last season, while Smith was a bit further down at No. 14. The year prior, Thuney was tied for 16th among all interior linemen (centers included) while Smith was tied for 18th. Again, both have been great, but Thuney has been better while also offering even more value with the ability he showed last season to push out to tackle in a pinch.
Thus, Veach is banking on Smith simply elevating to that level, given that he's by far the younger of the two players. At the same time, though, if Thuney's run of dominance on the interior of the offensive line continues in Chicago now while Smith doesn't elevate further, that could look tough to swallow. Similarly, the Chiefs also banking on Kingsley Suamataia to slot into guard is a wild card in the equation, one that could come back to haunt Veach in this conversation as well.
None of this means that the Chiefs are doomed or made the wrong decision. Far from it. I happen to believe that the bet on Smith will ultimately pay off and was the right call. However, what you can't ignore is the risk baked into this deal and all the decisions that led to it for Veach. If, for a number a reasons, it doesn't work out in Kansas City's favor, the backlash is going to all fall on the GM's doorstep.