Over the weekend, the Miami Dolphins posted an outdoor practice hype video, hoping to dispel the rumbling that this team – typically used to playing in sunny Florida with palm trees in the periphery – couldn't perform in the spotlight when the temperature dips.
Tua Tagovailoa was conveniently absent from that video, and it's likely for a reason.
Practice up north 🐬 pic.twitter.com/thIsPNy1Vk
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 14, 2025
Tua Tagovailoa's Dolphins have struggled in cold weather games
There's no denying that Tagovailoa's success rate has dipped in cold weather games. In his professional career, Tagovailoa is 0-5 when the temperature is 40 degrees or less. On Monday night in Pittsburgh, the kickoff temperature is expected to be somewhere in the high teens at best. Tua doesn't sound all the concerned, but the numbers speak for themselves.
"It's football, bro," Tagovailoa said Thursday, via the South Florida Sun Sentinel. "It is what it is. We got to play them in Pittsburgh, whether it's negative-20, whether it's 20 degrees. We got to play football."
Again, the numbers don't lie. Tagovailoa grew up in Hawaii. He played his college football in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. He's just not built for this, and the Steelers know that. Deep down, so do the Dolphins and Tagovailoa, which is why he's performed so poorly in the cold.
Temperature | Record |
|---|---|
Below 40 degrees | 0-5 |
Below 45 degrees | 1-6 |
Below 50 degrees | 2-8 |
Below 55 degrees | 4-13 |
Again, the kickoff time temperature in Pittsburgh will be well below 20 degrees, and should drop fast. There was a snowstorm over the weekend, so when Tua hits the ground, he'll hit the ground hard. If there is one thing working in the Dolphins favor, it's that they haven't relied as heavily on the passing game during their recent win streak, and that the Steelers will be without TJ Watt.
Even with the weather in their favor, Steelers should worry about the Dolphins
The Steelers have a leg up on the Dolphins defensively, but they won't have TJ Watt on Monday. The Steelers star pass rusher suffered a punctured lung during a medical treatment at the team facility and was taken to the hospital as a result. It's unclear how much time he'll miss. Here is what TJ's brother JJ said over the weekend:
"Yesterday TJ had successful surgery to stabilize and repair a partially collapsed lung suffered Wednesday after a dry needling treatment session at the facility. Recovery timeline is still TBD, but all went well and he is being released from the hospital today," JJ Watt wrote on X. "He and his family are very appreciative of everyone’s kind words and well wishes."
Without Watt, the Steelers will rely heavily on Jack Sawyer, Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith. The real worry for Pittsburgh won't be stoping Tagovailoa, who has thrown for fewer than 175 yards in each of the Dolphins last four wins. If anything, Miami has been more of a rushing threat thanks to their All-Pro level running back, De'Von Achane.
"I'm happy," Tagovailoa said. "As long as we're getting wins, that's all that matters in this league. Now, would I like to throw the ball more? Sure. But if running the ball is what's helping us win games right now, I don't see why we stop doing it."
Steelers will force Tua Tagovaloa to beat them
Expect the Steelers to load up against the running game. Mike Tomlin has long said that the key for this defense is to stop the run first, and the Steelers have failed to do that against far inferior backs than Achane. If Pittsburgh can load up the box and force Tagovailoa to beat their patented Cover 2 scheme, they'll take whatever happens next.
The key to stopping the run for Pittsburgh will be whether their first-round pick, Derrick Harmon, can play on Monday. There's been a noticeable difference in the Steelers rush defense in games Harmon has played vs. the contests he's been forced to miss via injury. The combination of Harmon and Cameron Heyward is tough to run against. Without Harmon, Achane can cut through the Pittsburgh defense like swiss cheese, making Tua's play in the cold irrelevant.