Another week, another frustrating one-score loss for the three-time reigning AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes and the offense moved the ball pretty well on Thanksgiving against the Dallas Cowboys, but crucial mistakes short-circuited drives at the worst possible time — errors that K.C. couldn't afford given how badly Steve Spagnuolo's defense struggled to get even a single stop.
We've been waiting for Andy Reid and Co. to click into gear for months now. But at this point, they might be out of runway: Thursday's loss in Dallas dropped them to 6-6 on the season, buried all the way in ninth place in the AFC standings. And even if they're able to go on a run to close the year, it might be too late.
AFC playoff picture after Chiefs, Ravens lose on Thanksgiving
Current field
Here's how things currently stack up, after the Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens both lost on Thursday night while the rest of the conference's playoff contenders get ready to play on Sunday.
Seed | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
1 | New England Patriots | 10-2 (AFC East leader) |
2 | Denver Broncos | 9-2 (AFC West leader) |
3 | Indianapolis Colts | 8-3 (AFC South leader) |
4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-5 (AFC North leader) |
5 | Los Angeles Chargers | 7-4 (first Wild Card) |
6 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 7-4 (second Wild Card) |
7 | Buffalo Bills | 7-4 (second Wild Card) |
The Patriots remain a nose in front in the chase for the top overall seed, with the Broncos hot behind — and the fading Colts now feeling closer to falling out of the playoffs entirely than holding on to a top-four seed after three uninspiring performances in a row. Speaking of uninspiring: The Steelers still cling to a slim lead in the AFC North thanks to Cincy's upset in Baltimore, while a trio of 7-4 teams look to maintain their grip on the Wild Card spots.
That makes life for Kansas City awfully difficult down the stretch of this regular season, especially after suffering a sixth loss.
In the hunt
Team | Record | Games back of playoff spot |
|---|---|---|
Houston Texans | 6-5 | 1 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 6-6 | 1.5 |
Baltimore Ravens | 6-6 | 1.5 (0.5 in AFC North) |
Miami Dolphins | 4-7 | 3 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 4-8 | 3.5 (2.5 in AFC North) |
The Chiefs are now two games in the loss column behind the Chargers, Jags and Bills; Jacksonville and Los Angeles get the Titans and Raiders, respectively, this weekend, so Kansas City will almost certainly be trying to make up a multigame deficit with just five to play. And that's not even considering the Texans, who are playing great football right now.
Even if Kansas City catches fire to close the year, they're still going to need to get some help in order to make up ground. Which is a tough spot to be in considering the schedule the Chiefs are about to face.
Chiefs remaining schedule does them no favors
Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
14 | vs. Texans (6-5) |
15 | vs. Chargers (7-4) |
16 | at Titans (1-10) |
17 | vs. Broncos (9-2) |
18 | at Raiders (2-9) |
That's hardly a murderer's row in a vacuum. Having two easy wins in Tennessee and Vegas helps, as does getting all of the difficult games at home. It wouldn't be shocking if the Chiefs won out against this slate.
Then again, how much do we really trust this current group? These aren't your older brother's Chiefs; they've already lost to the Chargers and Broncos, after all, and the Texans are no slouches even with CJ Stroud's health in question. Something like 4-1 or even 3-2 feels more realistic, given the competitoin they're about to face and how uneven K.C. has looked all year.
Let's be optimistic and take that 4-1 mark, which would have them finishing the year at 10-7. That almost certainly wouldn't be enough to leapfrog both Denver and Los Angeles, meaning the Chiefs would be stuck fighting for a Wild Card spot. It's certainly not impossible for at least two of the Chargers, Jaguars, Bills and Texans to finish with seven losses. The problem is that even that scenario wouldn't necessarily ensure that Kansas City is playing in January.
Chiefs playoff tiebreakers: Kansas City's margin for error is basically zero
The head-to-head situation isn't in Kansas City's favor, at least right now. Those losses to L.A., Buffalo and Jacksonville hurt, and create a situation in which the upcoming games against Houston and the Chargers are almost must wins; it's a hard enough road to hoe even without having to make up an extra game against the majority of your competition. Beat all of Houston, Los Angeles and Denver, and you put yourself in much better position.
That's even more true considering that the NFL's second Wild Card tiebreaker is conference record. The Chiefs currently lag there, sitting at 3-4 behind Denver (6-2), L.A. (6-2), Jacksonville (4-2), Buffalo (4-3) and Houston (5-2). Again, they lose the head-to-head with the Bills, so that's a two-plus-game deficit they have to make up down the stretch. Even if they go 4-1, they'd need other teams ahead of them to go at best 2-3 to put themselves in viable position.
It's not impossible, certainly not for this team and this quarterback. Right now, though, the odds are stacked against them, even if they get hot to close the year.