He may only be listed as the team's fourth-string quarterback heading into the final week of the preseason, but the odds are in Shedeur Sanders' favor to start at least one of the 17 games on the Cleveland Browns' schedule for this season. Over the last two years, Cleveland has started a combined seven different quarterbacks, including at least four in each of the two last campaigns.
So unless the Browns trade for someone else or sign someone as a free agent this late into the game, recent history suggests Joe Flacco will eventually give way to the likes of Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, and maybe even Sanders. I would have Sanders serving as Flacco's primary backup at this time, but I will let Kevin Stefanski's depth chart speak for itself heading into the NFL regular season.
Here is a list of every quarterback to start at least one game for the Browns over the last two years.
- Joe Flacco: 4-1 (2023)
- Deshaun Watson: 5-1 (2023), 1-6 (2024)
- P.J. Walker: 1-1 (2023)
- Dorian Thompson-Robinson: 1-2 (2023), 0-2 (2024)
- Jeff Driskel: 0-1 (2023)
- Jameis Winston: 2-5 (2024)
- Bailey Zappe: 0-1 (2024)
Over the last two years, nobody started more games for the Browns than Deshaun Watson, who went a combined 6-7 in 13 starts from 2023-24. Jameis Winston has the second most with seven from 2024. Joe Flacco and Dorian Thompson-Robinson each had five. P.J. Walker has two in 2023. Bailey Zappe started one game last year and Jeff Driskel started on the year prior. What does this all mean?
On average, a Browns quarterback is getting just under a tick of five starts before somebody else.
When can we expect for Shedeur Sanders to make his first career start?
Right now, I have the Browns going around 5-12 this season, regardless of who their starting quarterback is. With Flacco having re-earned Stefanski's trust again, I would expect it will be his job until at least the Browns' international game vs. the Minnesota Vikings on Oct. 5. If the Browns are 1-4 or worse, I would venture to guess that Stefanski will feel the pressure to make a quarterback change.
If we were to go down the line of succession of having each quarterback getting 4.85 starts before it is the next guy's turn, that would have Sanders starting for an already out-of-it Browns team at home vs. the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers on Dec. 28 in Week 17. He would then presumably get the regular-season finale at another AFC North foe in the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 18 to end the year.
Assuming Sanders climbs up the depth chart past Gabriel and even Pickett, the earliest he could conceivably be starting is in the Browns' sixth game of the season at the Steelers on Oct. 12. If he only eclipses one Browns quarterback on the depth chart before it is his turn, give it another five games before he gets the start at the Las Vegas Raiders on Nov. 23. Maybe they get a win there?
While all signs point to Sanders at least getting a start or two this season, it could be coming sooner than we expect. No, it is not going to come any earlier than the road date at the Steelers on Oct. 12. I expect that it will come before the Browns' second-to-last game of the season at home vs. Pittsburgh. I think looking bad at home vs. the Baltimore Ravens on Nov. 16 might be the time to do it.
Sanders may be well on his way to starting between one and five games for the Browns this season.