Three weeks of NFL football are in the books, and patterns have already started to emerge that are relevant to both front office and fantasy managers. Game plans now know that Green Bay might have the most dangerous defense in the league. Skill position rotations are becoming more and more evident as time goes on.
How does this affect your fantasy team? Well, if you own any of the following players, pay attention.
Fantast football starts of the week
QB: Jordan Love
Jordan Love and the Packers would love to put an embarrassing Week 3 in the rearview mirror. But Cleveland's defense is arguably the best in the league, and the Packers now get to take out their frustrations on the Dallas Cowboys, who, despite having an average rush defense, have allowed the most air yards in the league by far through three weeks, and are also bottom tier in points allowed. If you believe in Green Bay's hype as a true Super Bowl contender, then expect them to recover from a bad loss like most teams do: by punching down and beating the brakes off of the unlucky team that follows. Combine this with the revenge angle the locker room will be going for in solidarity with Micah Parsons, and the Packers will be coming into Dallas angry and focused.
RB: Breece Hall
It is safe to say that Breece Hall has underperformed even his all-time low ADP ever since Week 1 against the Steelers. RB43 and 31 finishes against Buffalo and Tampa are not great, and even his rushing attempts have taken a dive (10 and 9 after 19 in Week 1). But if Hall were to have a get-back game, it would be against the fifth-worst rushing defense in the NFL. The Dolphins let Rhamondre Stevenson of all people put up 21.2 PPR fantasy points on them, and that was on only 11 rushing attempts and 5 catches. Even if Braelon Allen tries to play spoiler, expect Hall to have an incredibly efficient day against Miami, even if his touchdown drought continues.
WR: Jakobi Meyers
Speaking of bounce backs, even if he was overshadowed by Tre Tucker's big day (40.9 PPR fantasy points), Jakobi Meyers is still a WR2-level fantasy player (WR22 through three weeks). Yes, Tre Tucker had a big day, but did it on an insane level of efficiency that is sure to regress back to the mean (8/9 receptions versus 3/8 in Week 2). Both are slot receivers against a Bears team that has let that player profile run roughshod all over them, but of the two, I'd start the bigger guy who also boasts the larger target share history.
TE: Jake Ferguson
This is going to be a rough game for anyone on Dallas' offense (spoiler alert: more on that later). Green Bay doesn't allow yards through the air and has only allowed three touchdowns through the first three weeks of the season. However, they've also allowed the third-most yards to tight ends in that same amount of time and since CeeDee Lamb is out, Ferguson is poised to continue the absurd target count he's sad since Week 2. And he's done wonders with those targets to boot, averaging 80 yards and going 22/26 receptions in total. If there's a bright spot on the Cowboys' attack against a fired up, Micah Parsons-led defense, it's going to be Jake Ferguson.
Fantasy football fits of the week
QB: Dak Prescott
And on the other hand, when we go back. Remember that Bears team that we talked about exploiting in favor of Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker? That's the same Bears team that picked Dak off twice, and only let the Cowboys put up 14 points. And it was even worse, at least yards-wise, against the Eagles in Week 1 (21/34, 0 TDs, 188 yards), and that was with CeeDee Lamb in tow! Jake Ferguson might eat good, but he will be the only Cowboy pass catcher that will. Dak is in for a terrifying evening with an angry Green Bay pass rush.
RB: Jacory Croskey-Merritt
If this man is on your roster, I already know that you are itching to start him. But all the touches that Austin Ekeler left behind have yet to go Bill Croskey's way, and were instead divvied up between him, Jeremy McNichols, and Chris Rodriguez. Croskey-Merritt has yet to have more than 10 rush attempts per game, and is essentially a non-factor from the air either (1 target per game). Tack that on to a Falcons team that, despite their struggles, allow the sixth-least points to opposing running backs. If Jacory Croskey-Merritt earns his way into bell cow status, it likely won't be until Chicago in Week 6. Be patient.
WR: Keon Coleman
You know, for a hopeless 0-3 team, the New Orleans Saints aren't actually terrible on either side of the ball, at least according to yardage totals. In fact, their average yard totals are placed at about the middle of the road on both defense and offense, on the ground and in the air through three weeks. What this means for the Bills is that they can afford to win how they want: through Josh Allen's improvisational brilliance and James Cook's ascendant play. Both aim to strangle slowly, and while that is good for Buffalo, that is bad for both New Orleans and Keon Coleman, who is reliant on big plays like he had in Week 1. But as long as Josh Allen spreads the ball as evenly as he does, and James Cook continues to run like a man possessed, Coleman's services won't be required by both the Bills and your fantasy team.
TE: Juwan Johnson
On the flip side of Keon Coleman, while Juwan Johnson is the TE2 (PPR) through three weeks, this is a bad match-up that is poised to sling him back down to Earth. The Bills lead the NFL in time of possession at almost 35 minutes, which will already limit the amount of typical plays called for tight ends in short yardage. Meanwhile, their defense has also held tight ends to a league-low five total catches. If you have the room to stream a different name this week at tight end, do it.