Training camp videos and intel suggest Dallas Cowboys wide receiver George Pickens is acclimating to his new surroundings swiftly and smoothly. It feels like there's a new viral clip of him coming down with an outrageous grab every day, because that's what's happening. But should fans and fantasy football managers alike expect this to translate to the upcoming NFL season?
Talent has never been the question for Pickens, he ostensibly just needed to leave the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's been character concerns and inconsistent quarterback play, and both of those appear to have been alleviated upon arriving in Dallas. Now in a much better situation, the 24-year-old is finally set up to succeed, making a breakout not only easy to envision but also imminent.
George Pickens is set up for a fantasy football breakout with Cowboys
Dallas' combination of a bad defense, nonexistent backfield, offensive line concerns and a sub-.500 expected win total creates weekly shootout opportunities. Not being able to make stops, block or run means the Cowboys will often have no choice but to move through the air. That environment positions Dallas to be one of the pass-heavier teams in the NFL in 2025, which is music to Pickens' and drafters' ears.
We've seen Dallas' first-year head coach, Brian Schottenheimer, orchestrate a fantasy-friendly aerial attack during his time as the Seattle Seahawks' offensive coordinator from 2018 to 2020. Russell Wilson finished ninth overall in scoring or better at the signal-caller position in three consecutive campaigns. The 10-time Pro Bowler was the QB6 and QB8 by average fantasy points per game (FPPG) in the latter two seasons of this partnership. Pickens and Co. should reap the benefits of having the longtime play-caller take over for his former boss, Mike McCarthy.
George Pickens meshes perfectly with Cowboys stars Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb
We'll give Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott a mulligan for his disappointing 2024 that was cut well short due to a hamstring injury. With that in mind, we'll use his MVP runner-up numbers from the prior season to highlight how strong of a fit he and Pickens are. Frankly, it's hard to draw up a better match.
Prescott's 70 pass attempts that traveled 20-plus yards in the air in 2023 was tied for fourth in the league and yielded fruitful results. He was tied for the second-most touchdowns (10) while ranking sixth in yards (959) and boasting a dazzling 125.9 passer rating in such scenarios. His willingness and ability to let it rep aligns quite well with Pickens, one of the premier field-stretchers in the business.
Filtered by receivers with at least 25 receptions to avoid statistical outliers, Pickens was 13th in average depth of target (aDOT). He was tied for the third-largest share of his team's air yards (44.9 percent) and 14th in total air yards (1,395). Those numbers could've been even bigger if not for Pittsburgh running at the second-highest rate with Justin Fields starting under center for six games.
George Pickens has untapped potential that the Cowboys can realize
Pickens' unrealized upside goes beyond the deep ball; he offers immense scoring potential as a 6-foot-3, 200-pound contested catch monster with strong hands. In 2024, his 13 end-zone targets were tied for the fifth-most in football. He was the only receiver with that many looks or more in that area to not convert those chances into three touchdowns at a minimum.
Entering the final year of his rookie deal, all signs indicate Pickens has cleaned up his act and been a consummate professional in Dallas. He's winning over teammates, namely All-Pro wideout CeeDee Lamb, who seems giddy about having a formidable running mate opposite him. The two have reportedly been "inseparable" since joining forces, and their immediate chemistry can only help them flourish together.
Needless to say, we're all the way in on Pickens at his current consensus PPR WR30 going rate and you ought to be too.
Note: Stats courtesy of Fantasy Points' data suite ($) and FantasyPros.