Nick Pivetta contract details should pump the brakes on Dylan Cease trade chatter

After making a surprise splash for Nick Pivetta, the San Diego Padres raised questions about their plan and who may still be on the trade block. We know the Friars have been looking to shed payroll, so adding Pivetta on a four-year, $55 million contract isn't their way to do that. That only leaves the speculation that San Diego is in the process of completing a more significant transaction in an effort to get below the first tier.

Padres projected starting rotation:

• Dylan Cease
• Michael King
• Yu Darvish
• Nick Pivetta
• Randy Vasquez

After the Pivetta signing, Matt Waldron slides out of rotation, and that makes sense after recording an underwhelming 4.91 ERA in 2024. Thankfully for the Padres, Waldron still has one minor league option remaining. That option will likely be utilized in 2025 to hopefully work out some kinks that could see him hopefully become more effective.

Given the Padres' wish to compete in 2025, it's not like they are throwing in the towel; the trade will likely not come from the starting rotation, especially after how San Diego structured Pivetta's contract, but instead, could see closer Robert Suarez on the move. It was mentioned that Suarez might be the likeliest to be on the move a little less than a week ago, and now, after adding more payroll, it seems like a foregone conclusion that a corresponding move is coming in the near future.

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Why Robert Suarez is the most likely to be moved by the Padres

After signing Alex Bregman, the Boston Red Sox checked a box by adding another right-handed bat to their lineup. Therefore, the Padres are seemingly stuck with Xander Bogaerts' contract, whose $25.4 million AAV would alleviate all of the financial constraints.

Cease, who competes at an ace level, is more valuable to the Padres than a reliever, especially when the Padres have other options to close games. So we circle back to Suarez, who has one year left, assuming he opts out next winter. Given the level he has been performing, it's a no-brainer that he will seek a multi-year deal in free agency with another strong season in 2025.

Moving Suarez to shed payroll means looking at internal options already on the books regarding who can take over closing duties for the team in 2025. Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada are the likeliest candidates. After being acquired by the Padres at the deadline, Adam recorded an other-worldly 1.01 ERA in 26.2 frames and has some experience closing games, notching 12 saves in 2023. Numbers tell you Estrada and his 2.95 ERA may be better suited for a set-up role this coming season.

In any case, with one free agent coming off the board, another rumor picks up. The baseball world will expect chatter after San Diego signed Pivetta, which they wouldn't have done without a corresponding move up their sleeve. We wait and see.