The Los Angeles Lakers are in trouble. Deep trouble, in fact, as they're now down 3-1 in their first-round series to the Minnesota Timberwolves after the Wolves erased a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to steal Game 4. The series shifts back to L.A. on Wednesday, and the Lakers would also host a potential Game 7, but Lakers fans aren't crazy for feeling like they've already let this one slip away.
In a lot of ways, the Lakers have gotten what they've hoped for in this series. Luka Dončić is averaging over 30 points per game. LeBron James is making vintage defensive plays. Together, they've rendered Rudy Gobert fairly useless.
The whistles haven't necessarily gone the Lakers' way, especially at the end of Game 4. The NBA has already admitted that it missed what would have been a critical foul committed against Luka, and the replay challenge that turned a Lakers possession into two Anthony Edwards free throws with the Wolves up one late was borderline at best. There's no sense in whining about that though, as the refs have generally been pretty good to the Lakers throughout history.
Even with those unfortunate calls at inopportune times, the Lakers have had their chances. Austin Reaves' game-tying 3-pointer just missed at the end of Game 4. Luka was laid low by a stomach bug in Game 3, but the game was tied with under five minutes left. The Wolves have just made more plays when they needed to make them.
We're expecting the Lakers to fight like their season depends on it in Game 5, because it does. Still, this feels like a mountain that's too tall to climb. Of the 288 NBA playoff series that have gone 3-1, the trailing team has come back to win only 13 times, or less than five percent. That's one reason why it feels like this series is already over. Here are three more.
The Lakers have no rim protection
When general manager Rob Pelinka sent Anthony Davis to Dallas for Luka, it made all the sense in the world from a long-term, team-building perspective. Luka is six years younger, and is quite frankly a better player than AD. This trade set the Lakers up to contend well past LeBron's retirement.
The only problem is that it made the Lakers' current roster construction a mess. Davis righted a lot of defensive wrongs with his rangy, athletic presence underneath, and for all of Luka's abilities, being a defensive stopper isn't one of them.
Perhaps running on a dose of team adrenaline after landing a top-five player in the league, the Lakers ranked near the top of the league in defensive rating even after Davis left, but it's become clear now that that stretch was just a mirage. Jaxson Hayes, who filled in so ably after the trade deadline, is all but unplayable now. Christian Koloko and Trey Jemison III aren't even on the postseason roster.
Pelinka is surely wishing that he didn't torpedo the deal for Hornets center Mark Williams, because the Lakers could really use someone with his length and shot-blocking ability underneath. The Wolves have been able to get to the rim nearly at will, and not only are they finishing, they're coming away with more than their share of and-1s.
Amazingly, LeBron has been the one to step up his defensive intensity, even though at 40 he's the oldest player in the league. In fairness to him, his defense has improved quite a bit this season over his recent lackadaisical years, but he's really turned it up in this series, both when manned up in 1-on-1 situations, and on the help side, where he's come up with a few turn-back-the-clock blocks.
Long-term, the Lakers will be fine. Pelinka will have all offseason to address the lack of a real center on the team, and things will be looking better heading into next season. For now though, this is an issue that feels impossible to overcome.
JJ Redick doesn't trust his bench
NBA rotations shorten in the playoffs around the league. That's always been true. It makes sense, as the urgency of needing to win a best-of-seven series against a tough opponent creates different goals than needing to navigate an 82-game regular season.
During the regular season, JJ Redick didn't exactly lean on his bench, but he certainly understood the importance of keeping his best players' minutes in check. LeBron, for example, played his fewest minutes per game since the 2020-21 season. Guys like Gabe Vincent, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Dalton Knecht were all given some run.
A veteran team like the Lakers just wants to get through the regular season healthy. Mission accomplished, as Redick steered the team through some turbulent times where not many guys were available. When the postseason began, the Lakers were about as healthy as they could be, and they got the No. 3 seed to boot. That was pretty much a best-case scenario.
Now that the playoffs are here, Redick has discarded his bench like a captain throwing excess weight overboard off his ship. It's been pedal to the metal in the postseason, but the problem is that the Lakers don't just need to beat Minnesota to reach their goal of hanging another banner. They need to get by the Wolves, then likely the Warriors, the Thunder and the Cavs or Celtics. It's a gauntlet of a marathon, but Redick is treating it like a sprint.
Redick played the same five guys for the entire second half in Game 4. It's fine to believe in your best players, but the lack of trust in his bench caught up to him, as the fresher Wolves were able to race past a Lakers team that was running on fumes in the fourth quarter.
LeBron was phenomenal in the first half with 22 points, but that effort, combined with the defensive intensity he displayed all game long, took its toll in the second half. He only scored five points in 24 minutes after the halftime break, and his final minute sequence of missing a long 3 with the Lakers up two, turning over an inbounds pass and then fouling Anthony Edwards allowed the Wolves to steal a win.
Even if the Lakers had won Game 4, and even if they find a way to win this series, this is a pace that's unsustainable, especially for a team whose second-best player is 40 years old. Redick may not have the bench he wants, but this is the bench he's got. He needs to find a way to use it, if only to keep his best players fresh for crunch time.
Anthony Edwards is ascending to another level
At the end of the day, this series looks like it may just come down to Anthony Edwards being too good. The young superstar had his coming out moment in the playoffs last year as he led the Wolves to the Western Conference Finals, but he's proving now that wasn't a fluke.
Edwards has had an answer for everything the Lakers have thrown at him. Constant double teams, an issue he said gave him problems during the regular season, are now no problem at all, as he's been able to slice his way through the defense and get to the rim, pull up from 3, or find an open teammate pretty much all series long.
The Lakers have been a step slow in their rotations, and Ant-Man has perfectly calibrated when to take it himself, and when to keep the ball moving. That's resulted in tremendous performances from his supporting cast. Julius Randle has silenced the doubters that thought the Wolves got fleeced in the Karl-Anthony Towns deal. Jaden McDaniels has been the X-factor of the series, not only by playing his typical strong defense, but by elevating his scoring to another level. That's all been made possible by Edwards having total control over the game.
Game 4 was Edwards' masterpiece, as he scored 43 points while shooting over 50 percent from the field. He got to the line 17 times, and he threw in nine rebounds and six blocks for good measure.
Edwards has had only one game this series with fewer than six assists, and to no surprise, it was in Game 2, his team's worst offensive performance of the entire season. Other than that game, he's elevated everyone around him.
Luka is the guy that the Lakers depend on to lift everyone else up, but he's been 50-50. He had nine assists in the Game 2 win and eight in the Game 3 loss, but in Games 1 and 4 he had only three assists, total. The Wolves are doing a better defensive job on him than the Lakers are doing on Edwards, and it's hard to see what Redick can do to change that in the next three games.
In beating Nikola Jokic and the defending champion Denver Nuggets in a road Game 7 last year, Edwards put the league on notice that he was making a leap. He's making another one now, and it's coming at the Lakers' expense.