Not what San Diego Padres fans wanted to hear.
It has been a grueling offseason for the Padres' fan base. With the Siedler family marred in a legal battle over team ownership, A.J. Preller has been operating under a mandate to slash spending. Rather than taking his usual aggressive approach this winter, Preller was forced to sit on his hands as the rest of the league stockpiled impact free agents. Just about every NL contender got better.
There was a brief glimmer of hope when the Padres looked like the favorites to land Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki, but that was a mirage, born mostly from wishful thinking. Nobody wanted the Los Angeles Dodgers to add another young star, except Dodgers fans. In the end, the latter group got its wish, and the Padres were left holding the bag.
With their future so murky, the Padres have a tough decision to make with soon-to-be free agent Dylan Cease. The 29-year-old finished last season fourth in NL Cy Young voting, posting a 3.47 ERA and 224 strikeouts. He was essential to San Diego's postseason push, but now it's time for the Padres to face a harsh reality.
San Diego has resisted Cease trade overtures to date, but a new development with Yu Darvish could force the Padres into a reluctant breakup.
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Yu Darvish injury puts new emphasis on Padres' Dylan Cease trade rumors
Yu Darvish is officially listed as questionable for Padres Opening Day with "elbow inflammation," per manager Mike Shildt.
Padres manager Mike Shildt says that Yu Darvish is dealing with “a little elbow inflammation.” pic.twitter.com/xMjCw7r9u6
— 97.3 The Fan (@973TheFanSD) March 18, 2025
This is nothing catastrophic — yet. Maybe it all blows over and Darvish begins the campaign at full strength. That is what we all hope for.
When the words "elbow inflammation" start getting tossed around, however, it's cause for concern. We aren't doctors. I am not here to prescribe Tommy John surgery. But, Darvish is 38 years old. He hasn't pitched a full season since 2022. It's fair to be a little on edge. Without Darvish, San Diego's outlook shifts rather dramatically.
For the purposes of this exercise, let's say Darvish ends up missing an extended period of time. Does that alter the Padres' strategy with Cease? It's one thing to cling to a top-shelf ace when there's a viable path to contention. It's another matter entirely, however, if San Diego is kneecapped to begin the season. Rotation depth is not a strength for the Padres. An injury to Darvish leaves the Padres exceedingly vulnerable.
Cease and Michael King form one of the NL's best one-two punches on the mound, but you need a stable five-man rotation to meaningfully contend in the NL West this year. Should Darvish, who's still one of the nastiest pitchers in baseball, hit the IL, the case for trading Cease and hitting the reset button gains strength. The Padres can expect quite the haul for Cease, even on an expiring contract. The market for starters has never been more lucrative.
Again, it's a little premature for definitive takes on the situation, but this Padres team is hanging together by a thread. With how dominant the Dodgers are — not to mention the healthy Braves, the Juan Soto Mets, the Corbin Burnes Dbacks, and the Bryce Harper Phillies — San Diego needs just about everything to break its way to have a chance in 2025. If Darvish gets scratched early, there's no point in clinging to Cease with no hopes of re-signing him on the open market.