What a difference a day can make in March. Earlier this week, it seemed like Indiana had done enough to get Mike Woodson one more shot at the NCAA Tournament before riding off (and/or being pushed, depending on your perspective) into the sunset. The Hoosiers edged fellow bubble team Ohio State in the regular-season finale, and while they fell short in a Big Ten quarterfinal matchup with Oregon, that felt like icing on the cake more than anything.
Not anymore, though. This is one of the trickiest bubble pictures in recent memory, and things got even thornier on Friday night, when Colorado State knocked off Utah State in the Mountain West Tournament semifinals and now threatens to steal another bid from other at-large hopefuls. Indiana is in the position no team wants to be in this time of year: sitting at home, their fate in someone else's hands. And it seems like a tournament spot might be slipping through their fingers in real time, at least if ESPN's Joe Lunardi is to be believed.
Indiana bracketology: Hoosiers now hanging by a thread
Lunardi's latest bracket projection will be a bitter pill for Indiana fans to swallow, as the Hoosiers have now dropped from his last team in to his first team out. The four ahead of IU right now? Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Xavier and Boise State.
Which, if it comes to pass, is sure to leave Indiana irate. Boise State is just 3-4 in Quad 1 games, 8-7 across Quads 1 and 2. Indiana, meanwhile, is 4-13 and 9-13, respectively. And that's just the tip of the iceberg: Xavier is a whopping 1-9 in Quad 1 games this season, with a lone upset over Marquette to speak of on their resume.
No one will argue that the Hoosiers aren't at least partially to blame for their current predicament. This team was left for dead in February, and Woodson's tenure is coming to an end for a reason. But the team has hit its stride of late, with four wins in its final six conference games including victories over Michigan State and Purdue. In a historically weak year on the bubble, you'd think that displayed upside would be enough to distinguish it. Unless something breaks IU's way, though, they could be NIT-bound.