The St. Louis Cardinals began the offseason with a clear and concise plan: Offload expensive vets, improve a weak farm system, and finally attempt to break this cycle of oppressive mediocrity after two straight seasons outside of the playoff picture.
It's no coincidence that this strategy coincided with Chaim Bloom's arrival as the heir apparent to president John Mozeliak, who is expected to step aside after the 2025 campaign. Mozeliak is among the most accomplished front office decision-makers in MLB history, but his Cardinals tenure is expected to end on the wrong end of the competitive spectrum. Sometimes it's necessary to bite the bullet and reset, though, at St. Louis has been on the road to nowhere for much too long.
That said, this "teardown" has not exactly gone to plan. The Cards let Paul Goldschmidt walk, but ace Sonny Gray is still there. Third baseman Nolan Arenado is still there. Closer Ryan Helsley is still there. A lot of expensive, aging vets remain on the roster, which still feels precariously perched in competitive no-man's land. St. Louis hasn't actually done much to change its fortunes in 2025, neither clearing space for younger players nor freeing up payroll.
There was a point early in the offseason when an Arenado trade felt inevitable, but after Mozeliak fumbled at the one-yard line in negotiations with the Houston Astros, those talks stalled. Arenado nixed his own list of trade destinations and exercised his no-trade clause. Now the eight-time All-Star appears destined to begin the season in a Cardinals uniform.
Perhaps the most glaring mistake from Mozeliak, however, is not moving off of Helsley at peak value. And now that hesitation may be coming back to bite St. Louis.
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Ryan Helsley's early spring training returns are enough to spark panic in the Cardinals fandom
When healthy, Helsley still ranks among the very best closers in baseball. He finished last season with a 2.04 ERA and a National League-high 49 saves, posting 79 strikeouts across 66.1 innings. With the market for closers exploding — Josh Hader received $95 million last winter, Tanner Scott received $72 million this winter — Helsley should be a hot commodity on the trade front. A lot of contenders need to shore up their bullpens.
Still, the 30-year-old remains in St. Louis without much reported traction in trade negotiations. The Cards appear rather bullish on Helsley, and understandably so, but this is not the time to cling tightly to veteran stars. St. Louis has publicly turned its attention away from trying to win a World Series, so what gives?
Helsley's early spring training results add to the mounting dread in St. Louis. If Helsley's value is at its peak right now, that means there's only one direction it can go — down. The two-time All-Star, who has dealt with his share of injuries in the past, does not look like himself at the moment.
In his spring debut, Helsley gave up three hits and two earned runs in a 16-pitch inning against the New York Mets. His fastball velocity sat around 95.5 MPH, which is 4.1 MPH slower than his average in 2024.
It's a little early for speculation, but the precursor to most Tommy John surgeries is a sudden, sharp decline in velo. Helsley finished last season in the 99th percentile for velocity and the 97th percentile for whiff rate. That is his game. He's out there to mix piping-hot gas with a deceptive slider. If Helsley's fastball loses its luster, he's going to have a tough time generating outs. There's a nonzero chance St. Louis has missed its window to extract any meaningful trade value.
We can only hope that this is a blip on the radar and that Helsley is a-okay. If not, it's a real failure on all fronts for the Cardinals, not to mention a huge bummer for the man himself.
Not being able to trade Arenado's ghastly contract is one thing. Clinging to Helsley, only for his production to plummet and injury concerns to crop up, would signify a catastrophic failure on Mozeliak's part.