The best way a college basketball team could secure a bid into the NCAA Tournament, it's to win their respective conference tournament in the days prior. The North Carolina Tar Heels seemed like they were out of the running, but they had some glimpses of hope. Getting to the semifinals of the ACC Tournament certainly helped keep them in consideration, but it wasn't enough to get them off the bubble.
ESPN's Joe Lunardi had the Tar Heels as a "last four in" team on Friday morning, before their semifinal game against Duke took place. A win would certainly have helped their chances.
Unfortunately for North Carolina, they lost 74-71 to Duke to get eliminated from the ACC Tournament. They lost in the most heartbreaking way imaginable, with a Ven-Allen Lubin game-tying free throw getting negated due to a lane violation foul by Jae'Lyn Withers.
So, what are the Tar Heels' chances of making it into the NCAA Tournament after the loss to Duke?
North Carolina's NCAA Tournament chances take hit after loss to Duke
While North Carolina was one of the final four teams remaining in the ACC Tournament, their loss to Duke gives them a distinction that no team looking to make it into March Madness wants. The Tar Heels are now 1-12 against Quadrant I teams in all of college basketball. Additionally, as Kevin Sweeney of Sports Illustrated points out, North Carolina has been worse analytically against Quad I teams this year than Arizona State, Rutgers, Kansas State, and Northwestern.
Much has been made of fact that most of North Carolina's Q1 opportunities have come vs. elite teams... but UNC largely hasn't played well in those games.
— Kevin Sweeney (@CBB_Central) March 15, 2025
Per T-Rank, UNC has been worse analytically in Q1 games this year than Arizona State, Kansas State, Rutgers and Northwestern.
That looks bad for the Tar Heels, and certainly doesn't help their odds. Lunardi didn't exactly give a glimmer of hope.
In Lunardi's latest Bracketology update, via Adam Zagoria of the New York Times, during the 10pm-midnight ET timeframe, North Carolina still remains in the bracket, but pending "late games and overnight numbers." Lunardi has Boise State and Colorado State as potential threats to make it into the NCAA Tournament, pending their results on Friday night.
North Carolina hanging on by a thread per @ESPNLunardi pic.twitter.com/6dAkbyiQfu
— Adam Zagoria (@AdamZagoria) March 15, 2025
This was the best chance for North Carolina to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Duke didn't have Cooper Flagg available due to an ankle sprain. The Tar Heels overcame a 45-24 halftime deficit to nearly take the lead at the end of the game, and they crumbled in crunch time.
For now, it will be a stressful couple of days for the Tar Heels, as they await word on their NCAA Tournament status on Selection Sunday.