North Carolina flirting with disaster already based on latest Bracketology update

There is plenty of time left in the college basketball season — the Madness doesn't begin for more than two months — but things are getting precarious in a hurry for Hubert Davis and the North Carolina Tar Heels.

This team started the season ranked No. 9 in the AP Poll, and an opening night loss to Kansas by 3 didn't feel like a death blow at all. Starting out the season on a win is always great, but losing to another powerhouse isn't panic-worthy.

After that, UNC rattled off three straight wins, including one against a strong Dayton team. Then came three straight losses to Michigan State, Auburn and Alabama. None of those are bad losses, and that's a gauntlet of a schedule... but they're losses nonetheless.

Jump forward a bit; now we're about halfway through the season, and UNC is 9-7. None of those 7 losses are horrible letdowns, but that's still an awful lot of L's for a preseason top 10 team. In the latest Bracketology at CBS Sports, UNC is predicted to be a nine-seed in the NCAA Tournament. That's a pretty swift fall for a team with veteran talent and promising underclassmen on its roster. A nine-seed is certainly capable of making a run, but even making the Sweet 16 — which would require beating a No. 8 and likely a No. 1 — is a tall task from that spot.

What's gone wrong for UNC?

Well, they can't really guard anyone. The Tar Heels rank second-to-last in the ACC in points allowed at 79.4. That's 336th in the country. Look, there are a lot of D-I basketball teams, but whenever you're ranked outside of the top 300... something's not going so well. UNC is nestled right between East Texas A&M and the University of Portland (go Pilots).

UNC's best player is also playing well below what he's capable of — RJ Davis shot 39.8 percent from 3-point last season, and that mark is down to 26.8 in 2024-25. His scoring average is down over 3 points too, and he just hasn't looked like himself for consistent stretches this year.

A potential bright side

UNC didn't need to be perfect in non-conference play to make this season successful. Obviously, winning a few of those 7 games would have totally shifted the outlook, but this team is still ranked No. 35 in KENPOM and has a string of winnable games ahead against SMU, NC State, Cal, Stanford and Wake Forest.

A turnaround is possible, but it needs to be pretty urgent.