How likely is Notre Dame to make the College Football Playoff? Game-by-game predictions for rest of the season

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have mostly dominated opponents since their incredible upset loss to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7, most notably not dropping another game.

Now sitting at 8-1 and staring down the final three weeks of its season, Notre Dame is given a 66 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff by the ESPN playoff predictor.

As an FBS independent, Notre Dame does not have a conference championship game to give itself an automatic bid into the 12-team field, so it is guaranteed to not be seeded any higher than No. 5 in the final bracket.

What is Notre Dame's path to the CFP?

Let's take a look at Notre Dame's final three games of the season and evaluate what needs to happen for it to secure a playoff spot - and what could go wrong to eliminate it from contention entirely.

Virginia v. Notre Dame (Nov. 15)

The Irish are given a 96 percent chance to win this matchup but it might be tougher than anticipated. The Cavaliers are coming off a huge 24-19 upset of a ranked Pittsburgh team that had playoff hopes of its own. But back-to-back upsets would be a tall order, especially with the game being played in South Bend. No shocker here.

Notre Dame v. Army (Nov. 23)

This will be the start of the final gauntlet for Notre Dame, who are given an 89 percent chance to defeat the Black Knights at Yankee Stadium. Army is still undefeated and expected to climb the rankings themselves in a bid to pass Boise State for the final conference champion bid. This matchup cannot be overlooked because if Notre Dame falters here, it only has an 18 percent chance of making the 12-team field.

Notre Dame v. USC (Nov. 29)

This is the big rivalry game. Now, the Trojan's season is basically over — meaning they cannot qualify for the playoff — given their disappointing 4-5 record. The Irish have a surprisingly low 69 percent chance of winning this game but that comes with the territory of a rivalry matchup. If Notre Dame takes care of business then it's locked into the playoff and would probably host 11-seed Indiana as the 6-seed. Lose to USC, and the Irish tank to only a 23 percent chance to make the 12-team bracket.