I try not to be a victim of recency bias, but this really does feel like the wildest NBA season we've ever seen. From the Luka Dončić trade, to the nuclear-level MVP race between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic, to the 11th-hour firings of Taylor Jenkins and Mike Malone, this year has been unprecedented in a number of ways.
Add in the fact that the standings are so close in the West with just a few games to go that six different teams could still finish between third and eighth, and you have a recipe for an unbelievably entertaining season.
Of those six teams, the Los Angeles Lakers are in by far the best shape. L.A. is currently two games ahead of the other five teams in the loss column, and by virtue of having every tiebreaker advantage, their magic number is two to clinch the third spot. After that, it's a mess, as the Clippers, Warriors, Wolves and Grizzlies are in a flat-footed tie, and the Nuggets are a half-game up on that group with their one extra win.
The Lakers aren't a lock for the third seed yet, but it feels pretty safe to assume that they'll end up there when all the dust settles. If that's the case, then who would they like to face in the first round?
Today we're ranking those other five teams by how much the Lakers would want to go against each of them, and explaining why. These aren't things that JJ Redick or his team is ever going to admit out loud, but in moments of quiet contemplation far from the hustle and bustle of Crypto.com Arena, we'll know the truth.
Let's start with the team the Lakers would least like to face, then work our way up to some more desirable matchups.
5. Golden State Warriors
The Lakers aren't alone in wishing to avoid Steph Curry and company. The Warriors might be the scariest team in the NBA right now, something that didn't seem possible a couple of months ago. The trade for Jimmy Butler changed everything though, and now Steve Kerr's team has gone from just hanging on to a play-in spot to being well within range of finishing fourth and having home-court advantage in the first round.
The Warriors have been extraordinary with Steph and Butler on the floor together, going 20-3 when they both play. That's a win rate of just under 87 percent, which is better than the Thunder and Cavs, the top two teams in the league. That stretch includes a road win over the Lakers on Thursday, L.A.'s only loss in their last five games.
With Butler in the fold, the Warriors have someone that can get out and defend alongside Draymond Green to create nightmare matchups for opposing scorers. Steph has recaptured his old "we have to pick this guy up at half court or he's going to kill us" energy, especially lately. He scored 52 against the Grizzlies, 37 against the Lakers and 36 against the Nuggets before finally laying a rare egg against the Rockets on Sunday.
Unlike most of the other teams in the West, the Warriors have championship experience, and that matters in a seven-game series. The Lakers would love to avoid them at all costs, as even a series win could end up being a Pyrrhic victory that results in their ouster in Round 2.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA fans have been down on the Wolves for much of the season, because it appeared that they took a step back after trading Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle. While it's true that Randle and his ball-stopping ways are less of a natural fit on this team than Towns' floor-spacing ability, the fact remains that the Wolves know how to D up, and they still have Anthony Edwards, who only continues to get better.
Like the Warriors, the Wolves have risen from the depths of the play-in standings by going on an extended run after the All-Star break. They've gone 14-3 in their last 17, a sign that their new pieces are finally jelling at the right time.
The Wolves are one of the few teams in the West that have played the Lakers to a draw this season, winning two of four. Only one of those games happened since Luka arrived in L.A. though, and Randle didn't even play in that one anyway, so the results can pretty much be thrown out.
The Wolves are playing well, and they're confident after making a run to the Western Conference Finals last year. Ant-Man will be intimidated by nobody. There are better matchups out there, plus do we really want to see A-Rod for two weeks straight? Nobody has ever said yes to that question.
3. Los Angeles Clippers
They haven't received the same level of attention as the Warriors or Wolves, but the Clippers are on a roll, and have been for a while. They're 11-2 in their last 13, with the only two losses coming at the hands of the Cavs and Thunder by a total of seven points.
The Clippers were close to a .500 team without Kawhi Leonard, but since he's come back, he's taken them to another level. That's been especially true in the last month, as he's only failed to score 20 points or more one time (and he even had 17 in that one).
The rest of the Clips are playing well, too. James Harden has taken many trips around the "overrated-properly rated-underrated" roller coaster throughout his career, but we're at a point right now where he's flying under the radar despite still averaging 22.5 points per game with a top-five assist rate.
Norm Powell may have been this season's biggest All-Star snub, but even though he's taken a bit of a backseat to Kawhi, he's still a dangerous third scoring option. Ivica Zubac could pose big problems for the Lakers' thin frontcourt, as he's one of the best rebounders in the NBA while also being capable of going for 20 points on any given night.
The Clippers have always been the little brother to the Lakers, and if they meet in the first round, it would put all the pressure on the Lakers to maintain that hierarchy. There's going to be pressure no matter who the Lakers draw in the first round, but if we can avoid a crosstown deathmatch in the first round, let's do that.
2. Denver Nuggets
At nearly any point this season, the Nuggets would have been much closer to the "team the Lakers would least like to play" than here, but things have changed. Denver has dropped four straight, their defense is the worst of any playoff team in either conference, and oh yeah, they just fired their coach and general manager with only three games left in the regular season, a panic move if there ever was one.
The Nuggets knocked the Lakers out of the playoffs each of the last two years, and they have three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, who still holds the title as "Most Terrifying Player to Go Against." They're wounded badly though, and it's difficult to imagine them figuring things out with an interim coach that gets the whiteboard with so little time before the postseason.
The last two times the Lakers and Nuggets have met has been eye-opening for both teams. In the first one, L.A. sat every player of consequence not named Austin Reaves, and they still had a three-point lead on the road in the final minute before the Nuggets stole it at the end. Reaves and Dalton Knecht combined for 69 points in that one while Luka, LeBron James, Dorian Finney-Smith and Rui Hachimura all rested.
The next time they played, the Lakers had Luka and DFS back while the Nuggets were without Jokic. Though we can't read too much into any Nuggets game where Jokic sits, it's unlikely that his presence would have changed Luka picking up where Reaves left off and going for 21 in the first quarter alone.
The Lakers aren't scared of the Nuggets anymore, nor should they be. If they're ever going to get revenge, this is the time.
1. Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are the team that everyone wants to draw in the first round, because they're the closest thing to an actual dumpster fire that the playoffs will see. They've only won four of their last 12, and Saturday's win at Detroit was their first win over a team that's currently over .500 since they beat the Bucks way back on Groundhog Day over two months ago.
Taylor Jenkins got the axe for Memphis' freefall in the standings, but it's difficult to imagine that moving on from an established coach this close to the playoffs is a good idea. Ja Morant is out here acting a fool with his imaginary guns, so who knows, he may end up suspended if he keeps going at this rate.
Even before thing fell apart for Memphis, this wasn't a team that scared any of the real West contenders. This group has only made it out of the first round once, and in the last three seasons the Lakers have beaten them eight out of 11 times.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is a great defender, but the Lakers have become a more perimeter-oriented team since trading Anthony Davis for Luka. His rim protection abilities won't matter as much when Luka, LeBron and Reaves are all creating from the outside.
The way Memphis is going, they're probably more likely to get knocked out of the play-in by the Kings than they are to grab the sixth seed, but if they do pull it off, the Lakers will gladly welcome them.