Obvious con doesn’t outweigh the pro in Mets NLCS Game 5 starting pitching decision

Just about everything has gone wrong for the New York Mets over the last couple of days. The team's usually sturdy starting pitching has collapsed, the offense has gone cold and the Los Angeles Dodgers have taken the first two of three games at Citi Field by a combined score of 18-2. Now, after a magical run to this point of the postseason, New York will need to find a way to win Game 5 just to keep its season alive and send things back to Dodger Stadium.

To make matters worse, the three starting pitchers that have gotten the Mets to this point — Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana — have all already pitched in this series, and will be unavailable for Game 5. That leaves Carlos Mendoza with nothing but suboptimal choices in his team's biggest game of the year. But he's made the right one nonetheless, even if it comes at a cost.

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Carlos Mendoza takes necessary risk with Game 5 pitching decision

Rather than give Kodai Senga another start in this series, Mendoza has chosen to give lefty David Peterson the ball instead. After a solid season in and out of New York's rotation, Peterson has yet to make a start in October, instead blossoming into a multi-inning relief weapon out of the bullpen. That sort of weapon is awfully valuable this time of year, especially considering how shaky the underbelly of the Mets' bullpen has proven to be in the NLCS. But the benefit of starting Peterson outweighs the cost of losing him as a high-leverage option.

There were really two other options for Mendoza to consider here. Senga drew a start in the NLDS against the Philadelphia Phillies and in Game 1 of this series, but for as good as he was in 2023, it's clear that he's not currently the same guy after battling injury for most of this season. Senga is reportedly available to pitch out of the bullpen, but we've seen him struggle with his command too much to trust him with the top of L.A.'s order. That leaves just Tylor Megill, who, like Peterson, started during the regular season before shifting to a bullpen role in the playoffs. But Megill hasn't pitched well of late, and he hasn't pitched nearly as much as Peterson has so far in the postseason.

Bullpen flexibility is important, but not as important as starting fast. Peterson gives the Mets their best chance at a solid four or five innings to get the ball to Ryne Stanek and Edwin Diaz at the back end, and Mendoza is right to hand him the ball.