The funniest possible Ohio State postseason outcome is still very much on the table

At 10-1 on the season, all that stands in the way of Ohio State getting back to Indianapolis would be the hated Michigan Wolverines. The Buckeyes got their 10th win of the season by handling previously undefeated Indiana in The Horseshoe on Saturday. That was Ohio State's second signature victory of the season with the other being over Penn State. Ohio State should be viewed as a playoff lock, right?

Well, not exactly... According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Buckeyes have a 99.5-percent chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff field. Only undefeated Oregon is better at 99.8 percent. The Buckeyes are one of 11 teams with better than a 60-percent chance to make the playoff, comfortably among a group of seven teams with a 90-percent chance or better of getting in.

So what would need to happen for Ohio State to somehow not get in? Well, it would require another loss to Michigan, probably of the awful variety. From there, either Indiana or Penn State, probably Penn State, would play Oregon in Indianapolis for the right to be the No. 1 seed in the 12-team playoff. At 10-2 (7-2), Ohio State would need to see how the rest of the playoff hopefuls align themselves.

The chances of Ohio State missing out are microscopic, but will be magnified with a Michigan loss.

Ohio State will become a playoff lock if Buckeyes can finally beat Michigan

According to FPI, there are 29 teams still mathematically alive to make the playoff. From Oregon at 99.8, to Marshall at 0.1, we are not yet ready to solidify a 12-team field. The right sequence to knock Ohio State out would require more chaos than just a win by Michigan during rivalry weekend. Somehow the Buckeyes' wins over Indiana and Penn State would have to be debased going forward.

Indiana and Penn State could definitely lose to Oregon if either team were the ones playing the Ducks in Indianapolis. However, Indiana could still beat Purdue with Lee Corso wearing the Oregon Duck head while on the sidelines coaching the Hoosiers. Penn State would fire James Franklin before walked off the field if Penn State somehow lost to Maryland. One of those would have to be required.

The Indiana win has Ohio State on the one-inch line on the precipice of hitting playoff pay dirt. The only other way Ohio State would not make the playoff is if the Buckeyes, Hoosiers and Nittany Lions all lost on rivalry week, and then Ohio State fell to Oregon in Indianapolis a week later to finish the season at 10-3 (7-2) as the Big Ten runner-up. Regardless, a Michigan loss will open a can of worms.

Ultimately, I don't think we can truly quantify how bad a loss to Michigan might look for Ohio State until it happens. Optically, it might be right up there with Alabama losing to Oklahoma or Ole Miss losing to Florida. Those SEC teams are a win worse in their league, but have played slightly stiffer competition. Ohio State has played the best competition in the Big Ten, but I wonder if it is enough.

All signs point to Ohio State making the playoff anyway, but they have to defeat Michigan here first.