Maybe the Ole Miss Rebels have a better shot of making the College Football Playoff than we give them credit for? Last year was supposed to be the year Ole Miss thought about going to Atlanta for the first time ever. The Rebels had the roster, but ended up going 5-3 in SEC play and 9-3 overall during the regular season. Ole Miss was among the first handful of teams out of making the playoff.
Flash forward to this year, and nobody in their right mind is picking the Rebels to make the playoff as either the SEC champion or one of seven at-large teams. Then again, maybe we are overlooking Lane Kiffin's team? One of the best things the Rebels have going for them this college football season is a fairly navigable strength of schedule. ESPN's Bill Connelly did the hard work so you do not have to.
He shared out on X the projected top 40 when it comes to strength of schedule when it comes to SP+. His SOS rating stems from "the projected win [percentage] an average top-five team could expect against your schedule." A top-five team would do slightly better with Ole Miss' 2025 schedule than a 9-3 record. Connelly's SP+ findings has Ole Miss with the 23rd hardest schedule in the nation.
Ole Miss has the third easiest schedule in the SEC with only Tennessee and Missouri being easier.
Now that 2025 CFB schedules are officially set, here's the projected top 40 for SP+ strength of schedule.
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) March 5, 2025
(Reminder: The SOS rating is the projected win% an average top-5 team could expect against your schedule. OU and Florida will need to be top-5 caliber to go even 9-3.) pic.twitter.com/Lf3sKcgaLD
Here is a week-by-week breakdown of what Ole Miss has to navigate during its regular-season slate.
Date | Opponent | Location |
|---|---|---|
Aug. 30 | Georgia State Panthers | Oxford, MS |
Sept. 6 | at Kentucky Wildcats | Lexington, KY |
Sept. 13 | Arkansas Razorbacks | Oxford, MS |
Sept. 20 | Tulane Green Wave | Oxford, MS |
Sept. 27 | LSU Tigers | Oxford, MS |
Oct. 4 | Bye | |
Oct. 11 | Washington State Cougars | Oxford, MS |
Oct. 18 | at Georgia Bulldogs | Athens, GA |
Oct. 25 | at Oklahoma Sooners | Norman, OK |
Nov. 1 | South Carolina Gamecocks | Oxford, MS |
Nov. 8 | The Citadel Bulldogs | Oxford, MS |
Nov. 15 | Florida Gators | Oxford, MS |
Nov. 22 | Off | |
Nov. 29 | at Mississippi State Bulldogs | Starkville, MS |
As you can see, the only tough road game the Rebels have on the schedule would be at Georgia.
Lane Kiffin catches a massive break when it comes to Ole Miss' schedule
Do not get me wrong. There are some potential roadblocks on Ole Miss' 2025 schedule beyond merely the road date at Georgia on Oct. 18. Removing the mid-October date Between the Hedges, I would argue that Ole Miss gets its three next toughest games all at home in LSU (Sept.27), South Carolina (Nov. 1) and Florida (Nov. 15) at home. Ole Miss lost to LSU and Florida on the road last year.
While I would not rule out Ole Miss falling to any of those three teams, their second toughest road game might be at Oklahoma on Oct. 25. The SEC opener at Kentucky on Sept. 6 should be a great opportunity for Ole Miss to avenge its worst loss of last season. To end the season at Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Nov. 29 feels like another easy victory for Ole Miss until proven otherwise.
Overall, we are looking at a schedule where even a depleted Ole Miss team can win around eight or nine games. At this time, we have to assume a road loss is coming in Athens. The Dawgs played terribly in the rain in Oxford last year. Both teams have new starting quarterbacks, but Georgia does not lose at home. What are the chances they win two of their other big three games in question?
I would say that the Florida home date is more likely, as Ole Miss will have had a warm-up beforehand vs. The Citadel. The LSU game may be the most tricky. It is a big SEC rivalry game. Plus, Ole Miss draws Group of Five power Tulane the week before. I would say the litmus test game for Ole Miss has to be the home date vs. South Carolina. If they handle business like they did last year, they may get in.
The schedule lines up in Ole Miss' favor again this fall, but 2025 will be all about Kiffin leveling up.