One Lions stat shows Super Bowl history may still not be on their side

The Detroit Lions emerged as one of the most dominant teams in NFL history through the early portion of the 2024 season.

The Lions were built with All-Pro talent in the trenches and a collection of hungry castoffs, and they have swarmed opponents in all three phases of the game. At least one Lions player earned NFC Player of the Week honors in six of the first 10 games this season. 

Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson — one of the few positive additions made by former coach Matt Patricia — has gashed opponents on the ground with a gap run scheme behind the league’s premier offensive line. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s opportunistic secondary has generated the fourth-most interceptions this season. The Lions special teams unit has quietly led the league with a net average of 46.3 yards per punt.

Dominant regular season teams have rarely won the Super Bowl

Through Week 14, the Lions have a league-best total DVOA of 40.0 percent, and their point differential of 183 points is historically great. The Lions are tied for the eighth-best point differential through Week 14 among all teams since 2000, per The 33rd Team. For context, Detroit’s point differential is a whopping 54 points higher than the next closest team this season, the Buffalo Bills.

Yet, the historic success comes with a warning. Among the 10 teams with the highest point differential since 2000, only one went on to win the Super Bowl, Trey Wingo noted. The 2009 New Orleans Saints, who are ranked fifth on the list, won Super Bowl XLIV. Three other teams on the list — the ‘01 St. Louis Rams, ‘06 Chicago Bears and ‘07 New England Patriots — made a Super Bowl appearance but fell short in the big game.

Rather than being viewed as an indicator of the team’s eventual fate, the statistic merely shows how difficult it is to win a Super Bowl championship. Regular season domination helps a team secure their playoff spot, but it doesn’t guarantee success. Championship teams play their best games when the stage is the biggest and the lights are the brightest.

The ‘07 Patriots were arguably the most dominant team in NFL history. They were the only team to go undefeated through a 16-game regular season and the only team to record a point differential higher than 300 points. Still, New England lost the Super Bowl against the New York Giants, who finished the season with a middling point differential of 22 points, which was just the 16th-best that season. The Giants barely managed to make the playoffs, but they got hot at the right time and tore through their opponents from a Wild Card spot. 

The Lions’ dominant regular season will earn them favorable seeding in the postseason, but their fate will ultimately be determined by how they perform in January and February. The road ahead won’t be easy, especially as injuries continue to ravage the roster.