The Open Championship is truly one of the best times of year in sports, not just in golf. Sure, it's bittersweet that this is the last major of the year (and that we have to wait until next April), but getting the best in the world from the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, LIV Golf and otherwise to Royal Portrush this week, the site of Shane Lowry's victory in 2019, should have everyone excited. It should also have us ready to nail some Open Championship picks this week.
We were on Chris Gotterup last week — unfortunately, it was just for a Top 20 and not for an outright win. That stings quite a bit, but it kept us near even for the week, so we'll take that. As has been the case all year, we'll have bit of a heavier card with our Open Championship picks, but the history at this event and what we learned from 2019 gives us a good runway into this tournament and a chance to get some good work done here.
At Royal Portrush, we love approach play, we love good driving (both accuracy and a bit of distance) and we love guys who have shown they can handle conditions of both Open Championship golf and links golf. With that, let's get right into our Open Championship picks and predictions for the week.
Golf betting record in 2025: 23-113-0, +11.695 Units (-0.25 Units at Scottish) | One and Done Total for 2025: $13,370,735 (Robert MacIntyre at Scottish, $19,800)
Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Open Championship picks: Outrights, Top 5, Top 10, Top 20 and One and Done selections
I'll have a full breakdown for my outright coming on SI Golf on Tuesday, but if you want to go ahead and get the best number that will potentially be available, we'll go ahead and unload these three picks right away with a brief explanation.
- Jon Rahm +1200, FanDuel (1 Unit)
- Viktor Hovland +3000, DraftKings (0.7 Units)
- Justin Rose +7500, FanDuel (0.3 Units)
Rahm has been trending all year in majors, and boasts a stellar Open Championship record. I think he's going to absolutely find himself in the mix this week. Hovland has similarly recaptured his ball-striking and has three Top 13 finishes in four starts at The Open. Finally, Rose showed signs of life in Scotland with a solo sixth finish, so after finishing T2 at The Open last year, we could be in store for another week in conention.
Top 5 pick for the 2025 Open Championship: Viktor Hovland +500
Doubling down on Hovland this week, I love where he's trending coming into The Open. He's second behind only Scottie Scheffler in terms of SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and, though his putting bit him in Scotland, his short game has been a plus at The Open Championship. And it shouldn't be ignored that, when in form (which excludes last year), Hovland has three Top 13 finishes in as many starts in this major. With three made cuts in major and a solo third at the U.S. Open this year, it's finally time for Hovland's breakthrough. So let's hit a Top 5 and an outright, shall we?
Top 10 pick for the 2025 Open Championship: Tyrrell Hatton +225
Tyrrell Hatton appears to be playing some of his best and most consistent golf in recent years, especially coming off a T4 at the U.S. Open and an uncharacteristically good T14 finish at The Masters earlier in the year. He's Top 25 in SG: Approach but also seventh in Good Drive percentage over the last 24 rounds, which gives him the goods to pass the ball-striking test. His bunker play and short game have also come into form as well. While I'm still not convinced he has the temperament to withstand 72 holes at Royal Portrush and win, his game is good enough right now to get him into the Top 10.
Top 20 pick for the 2025 Open Championship: Patrick Reed +210 (FanDuel)
The past few years at The Open Championship haven't been kind to Patrick Reed with no finishes inside the Top 30 in his last three starts. The last time it came to Portrush in 2019, however, Reed finished solo 10th in the event. That stands to reason, and also stands to reason that he could do it again in his current form. Quietly, he's been a Top 20 player in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds in the field but is also one of the most accurate drivers and an elite short game player as well. Getting better than 2-1 odds for a player with that profile and his major pedigree feels like cheating, frankly.
One and Done pick for the 2025 Open Championship: Tyrrell Hatton
While I again admit that I'm dubious of Hatton's win equity, there is still some. What does stand out to me more, however, is the high floor I see for the Englishman in this event. Royal Portrush seems to suit him beautifully, and I think that will limit the chance of any real collapse, even if his mentals get the best of him once or twice.
Open Championship picks and more best bets for Royal Portrush
Kristoffer Reitan to finish Top 40 at The Open Championship +215 (DraftKings)
There's a chance that you'll see a small bullet fired on Kristoffer Reitan whenever we dive into dark horse picks for Royal Portrush, but I'm loving what I'm seeing from the Norwegian. The 27-year-old was T4 on the DP World Tour two weeks ago, then followed that up by gaining 1.84 strokes ball-striking per round and finishing T13 in Scotland. He's relatively unknown, but we've seen that type of player at least make a bit of noise in the right form at The Open in recent years. I'm hitching my wagon to that guy being Reitan this week.
Jon Rahm Top LIV Golfer +275 (DraftKings)
Much like with Hovland, I'm all about trying to double down on players I have a ton of conviction behind. This week, that's very much Hovland and also Jon Rahm. I don't like Bryson DeChambeau at The Open, in general, but especially with his spotty recent approach play. More importantly, Rahm is in peak form and, with Bryson removed, has by far the highest upside of any LIV player this week. That's enough for me to take a shot on the Spanish phenom again, and simply say he's going to finish the best out of his peers on LIV.
Shane Lowry, Matt Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley, Justin Rose to finish Top 40 +768 (DraftKings), 0.5 Units
I'm looking at this quartet of players, seeing the ball-striking and/or Open Championship history and the floor seems quite high. So, why the hell not parlay them together to simply finish in the Top 40 and call it a day? We have the defending champion at Portrush in Lowry, Fitzpatrick heating up, the steady Henley on a course that plays to his strength, and Rose after his showing at The Open last year and a great solo sixth ramp-up in Scotland. It's risky, so the units are down a bit — but I love the upside here.