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Oregon’s game against Illinois this weekend feels like deja vu in a bad way for Ducks fans

Last time Oregon was ranked No. 1, they lost a week later to Stanford. Here is why that is a much different circumstance.

By Brett Fine

Oct 18, 2024; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) throws a pass during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images
Oct 18, 2024; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) throws a pass during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images
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There is an increasing amount of tension for the No.1 Oregon Ducks (7-0) matchup against the No. 20 Illinois Fighting Illini (6-1) this Saturday. But the Ducks are 21.5-point favorites at home, so why is that?

The answer is that the media is shining a light on what happened last time Oregon was voted No. 1 in the AP Poll. The last time was in 2012 when they lost their next matchup against No. 13 Stanford. Will the Ducks repeat this type of performance or is this just another slow news day for the media?

This is a completely different Oregon team

Look, it is certainly worth noting that the last time Oregon was in this situation they lost. Let's rewind to 2012.

Back in 2012, Oregon's football program had not built up the resume that it has now. Yes, they reached a national championship under Chip Kelly in the 2010 season. However, that was when the Ducks really bursted onto the scene. So Oregon was fairly new to being a great football program back then.

Fast forward to now, Oregon has won or appeared in multiple Pac-12 Championships, won a playoff game, appeared in another national championship, recruited a Heisman-winning quarterback, and consistently been in the top-10, year in and year out. Oregon has won multiple Rose Bowl and New Year's Six Bowls since then as well. So this is a completely different program with much more experience under the limelight than they were in 2012.

2024 Illinois is NOT 2012 Stanford

This Illinois team has undoubtedly exceeded expectations this season. If you would've told any Illini fan before the season that they would have a win against the defending champions and be 6-1 going into this week they would tell you no way.

However, this Illinois team is not as impressive as the 2012 Stanford Cardinal. That team held Oregon to only 14 points that night which is certainly not going to be the case on Saturday. Stanford went on to win the Pac-12 Championship in 2012 and the Rose Bowl. One similarity between the two matchups, however, is the spread. Oregon was also a 21-point favorite against Stanford back in 2012.

What should we expect on Saturday?

Oregon opened as 21.5-point favorites for the matchup against the Illini. Oregon's offense may be poised for another big day. Purdue managed to put up 49 points on Illinois a couple of weeks ago, and the Illini offense does not rank in the top 70 in either rushing or passing yards.

As long as Oregon's linebackers stay disciplined against Luke Altmeyer in the run-pass-option plays, the Ducks should be fine. Illinois has to fly across the country after a hard-fought win against Michigan, to face off with a team who is on fire that also got an extra day off since they played on Friday last weekend. Oregon has been known to let teams cover the spread late this season but has shown dominance early in the game lately. Expect the Ducks to handle business at home on Saturday.

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