The Baltimore Orioles aren't exactly rocking out of the gate, but Jackson Holliday looks awfully good. He's batting .304 with an .812 OPS, including a home run and a stolen base. As Baltimore looks to chart its future with what remains one of baseball's deepest talent pipelines, Holliday's emergence could prove essential to the O's postseason hopes.
That said, let's pump the breaks a little bit when it comes to praising the 21-year-old. Holliday's talent is undeniable, both at the plate and in the field, but he's still on the come-up. This is not the final product for the former No. 1 pick, and Baltimore fans need to be prepared for the inevitable step back.
Holliday's early numbers look great on the surface, and he finished the 2024 campaign with a impressive flourish. Still, he's learning the ropes, which means adjusting to the elite control and power stuff of MLB pitchers. Some of the advanced metrics, such as whiff percentage and expected batting average, put a slight blemish on Holliday's output.
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Jackson Holliday's advanced metrics prove there's still work to be done for Orioles star
Holliday's whiff rate (34.1 percent) and strikeout percentage (33.2) rank among the worst in MLB, per Baseball Savant. We are six games into his second pro season, so we needn't panic, but Holliday has been K'd eight times in 24 ABs — roughly a third of his trips to the plate. He has only drawn one walk by comparison.
Plate discipline was a huge struggle for Holliday in his turbulent rookie campaign. Those issues persist. Holliday has plenty of time to figure things out at such a young age, but his current approach will yield inconsistent results. For every .300-plus six-game stretch like this, we're bound to get a cold spell rife with strikeouts. That isn't necessarily a huge concern for the No. 7 hitter in Baltimore's deep lineup, but if Holliday ever wants to move up the O's hierarchy, he will need to start seeing the ball a bit better.
Holliday's low expected batting average (.191) and slugging (.326) are especially telling. Point blank, he has been more than a little lucky out of the gate here. His surface-level production is a mirage, and the O's need to account for the eventual fall back down to earth. It's fine — patience is key with such a young, robustly gifted individual — but Baltimore cannot count on All-Star production from Holliday. Not yet, at least.
With Gunnar Henderson's return on the horizon, it should be interesting to see how Holliday's role changes. He wasn't great at second base last season, a less natural position, and the O's can probably get more consistency from some of their vets. Investing in Holliday and stacking MLB reps is smart in the long run, but with Baltimore suffering in the standings right now (3-4), we may see the Orioles start to shy away from the uber-talented lefty.
The O's are counting on Holliday as a cornerstone piece for the next decade; that doesn't necessarily mean he is about to be a featured piece this season. Baltimore fans need to afford him the necessary patience now, lest things get uncomfortable when the coming slump strikes.