What teams will outperform or underperform their college football win totals in 2025?

It is never to early to start thinking about next college football season. It was not even a month ago when Ohio State won the College Football Playoff over Notre Dame in Atlanta. The Buckeyes went on an impressive postseason run to win the first 12-team playoff, just like winning the inaugural four-team playoff a decade prior. One would expect Ohio State and Notre Dame to be contenders in 2025.

But with that in mind, On3 shared out a slew of win total projections put out there by FanDuel Sportsbook for the 2025-26 college football season. Keep in mind that this is all about getting equal money on both sides of win total projection. However, some will exceed these benchmarks, while others will come up short. It is merely the nature of the beast. What it does is create conversations.

From FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the win total projections for a handful of college football teams.

• Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 10.5
• Ohio State Buckeyes: 10.5
• Oregon Ducks: 10.5
• Penn State Nittany Lions: 10.5
• Clemson Tigers: 9.5
• Georgia Bulldogs: 9.5
• Tennessee Volunteers: 9.5
• Texas Longhorns: 9.5
• Alabama Crimson Tide: 8.5
• Indiana Hoosiers: 8.5
• Louisville Cardinals: 8.5
• LSU Tigers: 8.5
• Miami Hurricanes: 8.5
• Michigan Wolverines: 8.5
• Kansas Jayhawks: 7.5
• North Carolina Tar Heels: 7.5
• USC Trojans: 7.5
• Colorado Buffaloes: 6.5
• Florida Gators: 6.5
• Iowa Hawkeyes: 6.5

For those who want a visual representation, here is a tweet put out by On3 to put it all in perspective.

Now I am going to break down all 20 teams in question on if I think they will hit the over or the under.

College football win totals ACC teams

Clemson Tigers: Over 9.5

Clemson is an easy pick to win the ACC next season and should do so by winning at least 10 games.

Louisville Cardinals: Over 8.5

I am very high on Louisville next season. I like their chances of winning at least nine games or more.

Miami Hurricanes: Under 8.5

Miami is not going to be as good as it was a season ago. I have The U winning around eight games.

North Carolina Tar Heels: Under 7.5

Just because Bill Belchick is in charge does not mean North Carolina will sniff eight wins this year.

College football win totals Big Ten teams

Indiana Hoosiers: Under 8.5 wins

Curt Cignetti's Indiana team will not sneak up on anyone, even if I like the Fernando Mendoza pickup.

Iowa Hawkeyes: Over 6.5 wins

Against all odds, the Iowa Hawkeyes usually find a way to win around eight games under Kirk Ferentz.

Michigan Wolverines: Under 8.5 wins

Eight wins for Michigan seems about right, but I am not ready to go there and say they will win nine.

Ohio State Buckeyes: Over 10.5 wins

The defending national champions are going to win around 11 games next year and possibly repeat.

Oregon Ducks: Under 10.5 wins

I am not as high on Oregon this year as others. Look for the Ducks to win around 10 games next fall.

Penn State Nittany Lions: Over 10.5 wins

This is the year for Penn State to win a national championship. They will win 11 games next season.

USC Trojans: Under 7.5 wins

Lincoln Riley is still in charge of USC. Therefore, I have no reason to ever be high on the Trojans again.

College football win totals Big 12 teams

Colorado Buffaloes: Under 6.5 wins

This seems a bit unfair, but Colorado is a massive regression candidate after all they lost to the NFL.

Kansas Jayhawks: Under 7.5 wins

Kansas will play like it did down the stretch, but I cannot see this team winning more than seven.

College football win totals SEC teams

Alabama Crimson Tide: Over 8.5 wins

Against my better judgement, I have Alabama winning about nine games for the second year in a row.

Florida Gators: Over 6.5 wins

This is the easiest over on the board. Florida is going to win at least eight games next college season.

Georgia Bulldogs: Over 9.5 wins

Georgia will win around 10 games again and be one of three or four SEC teams that make the playoff.

LSU Tigers: Under 8.5 wins

ILSU turns on Brian Kelly after this season. How do you win only eight games with Garrett Nussmeier?

Tennessee Volunteers: Over 9.5 wins

It will not be by much, but Tennessee takes advantage of a soft schedule to win 10 games once again.

Texas Longhorns: Over 9.5 wins

Texas is my pick to win the SEC. Therefore, the Longhorns are going to win around 10 or 11 games.

College football wins totals national independents

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Under 10.5 wins

I have Notre Dame winning 10 games. Will that be enough to make the playoff again? We shall see...

And there you have it! I have 10 teams hitting the over (Alabama, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Louisville, Ohio State, Penn State, Tennessee, Texas) and 10 hitting the under (Colorado, Indiana, Kansas, LSU, Michigan, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Oregon, USC). Most projections are only about a game or so off what I think. I could be totally wrong. Thus, I have until Week 0 to adjust this.

For now, let's try to relax a bit and see what other win totals of note could be coming out here soon.