Packers hope for another dark-horse playoff run might already be cooked

The Green Bay Packers captivated NFL fans with a dazzling performance over the second half of the 2023 season. In his first year as the starter, quarterback Jordan Love helped the Packers climb out of a 3-6 start with six wins over the last eight regular season games. 

Green Bay’s 9-8 record managed to be enough to get them into the playoffs, and the Packers trounced the Dallas Cowboys with a 48-32 upset victory in the NFC Wild Card Round. The Packers were just a few plays away from making it to the NFC Championship Game, but ultimately fell short with a 24-21 loss against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Divisional Round.

There was optimism in Green Bay that the team’s young quarterback and wide receiver corps would only improve during the offseason. Although the Packers have clinched a playoff berth with an 11-5 record, the team’s chances of going on another sensational postseason run are beginning to look grim.

Packers have struggled against NFC's best teams

The Packers have struggled to win games against the best teams in their conference. Sunday’s close loss to the Minnesota Vikings dropped the Packers to a 3-5 record against opponents with a winning record. 

The Packers opened the regular season with a 34-29 loss against the Philadelphia Eagles, who currently hold the NFC’s No. 2 seed. The Vikings and Detroit Lions, who entered Week 17 in a tie for the NFC’s top seed, have both defeated Green Bay twice. The Packers would have to face at least one of those teams to make it to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans.

Green Bay notched wins against just three teams with a winning record: the Los Angeles Rams, the Houston Texans and the Seattle Seahawks.

The Packers managed a 24-19 victory against the Rams in Week 5, but Los Angeles was reeling when the game took place. The Rams won just one of their first five games, and they didn’t start to get back on track until after their bye in Week 6.

Love and Co. also pulled out a narrow 24-22 victory over the Texans in Week 7. It was a sloppy performance by Love, who threw two interceptions to go along with his three touchdowns. Ultimately, the fourth-year quarterback redeemed himself by driving the offense down the field to set up a game-winning field goal as time expired.

Green Bay’s last win against a winning team was a convincing 30-13 win over the Seahawks in Week 15. Seattle has struggled against winning teams as well, and their 8-6 record won’t get them to the playoffs.

Green Bay dropped to the NFC’s seventh seed after their loss to Minnesota. The Washington Commanders hold the tiebreaker over Green Bay due to win percentage in conference games. Unless the Commanders lose in Week 18, the Packers will enter the postseason with the toughest opponent in the Wild Card Round. 

If the standings hold, the Packers would travel to face the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. As the sixth seed, Green Bay would have faced either the Rams or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, depending on the results of Week 18. Either way, that would be a much easier challenge than the one they’ll face as the seventh seed.