25-under-25: Paolo Banchero meets his stress test

The best part of any episode of “Bar Rescue” is when Jon Taffer bursts into an establishment, stuffs it with people to capacity and tells the overwhelmed workers to figure it out. The results are chaotic and revealing. Spoiler alert, it never goes awesome for the flailing staff. But everyone learns something.

The Orlando Magic are in their stress test phase right now, and in the middle of the frenzy is Paolo Banchero. It might look ugly at times, but they will be better for it.

This is not to say that last season’s playoff appearance didn’t matter or that the Magic are flailing like an ill-conceived, pirate-themed bar in Maryland. Rather, the Magic should be proud of what they’ve built. Banchero, the subject of this installment of FanSided’s 25-under-25 series, is a 21-year-old All-Star who looks the part of a championship-caliber wing. Franz Wagner has dressed himself like an ideal co-star. Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac and others anchored last season’s third-rated defense. 

After this emerging ensemble led the Magic to their first playoff berth since 2020, it could have been easy to use the offseason to look for the missing piece. 

Instead, the Magic doubled down. They re-signed a bunch of their own guys, added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope — a hand-in-glove fit — and concluded their business. Going back to “Bar Rescue,” this wasn’t a makeover with an exciting new POS system and a butt funnel. The Magic passed their first stress test with flying colors, then asked for another.

That’s because the learning phase for the Magic isn’t over, and they know it. Despite the success, they still ranked 22nd in offensive rating. They had even more trouble scoring in the playoffs, going from 112.9 points per 100 possessions in the regular season to 104.9 in their playoff series loss to the Cavaliers.

Without a true point guard, Orlando tasked Banchero with initiating the offense. The results were ugly. He averaged 4 assists to 4.6 turnovers in the seven-game series. 

Shut it down!

The obvious response was to go get a point guard. Someone who can take the playmaking weight off of Banchero’s shoulders so that he can focus on scoring. Suggestions like Darius Garland, Tyus Jones and Anfernee Simons came from all over the internet.

But while that would certainly make it easier on Banchero in the short term, it wouldn’t make him better. The Magic are prepared to throw him into the fire again, recognizing that quick fixes could help them win more games this season, but won’t result in a championship ceiling. 

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The Magic need Paolo Banchero to take another leap

As Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman expressed at media day, development is more of a focus than stacking Ws.

“We’ve gone from 22 to 34 to 47 (wins), and not once have we set an expectation or goal for win total,” Weltman said. “So, our goals are more bigger picture. How do we put our players in the best positions to continue to develop the right way?”

For Banchero to develop into the kind of top-tier wing capable of leading a team to a championship, he needs to become a better playmaker. Adding a primary ball-handler to the group would take the ball out of his hands, meaning fewer reps. No more stress test.

“We need to give him time to grow, experiment,” Weltman said. “We haven't made any significant trades or given up a bunch of draft picks. We're letting these guys grow up. Paolo, for all of his abilities and all of the notoriety he's already getting, I think he's one of those guys. Growing up, hopefully, the right way and continues getting better and better each year."

The obvious model here is the Boston Celtics, who carefully helped develop Jayson Tatum into their lead facilitator. After Kyrie Irving’s brief stint, Marcus Smart helped handle some of the point guard responsibilities, but Tatum’s assist numbers have increased in each of his seven seasons to the point where they could surround him with shooting and defense. Had they held onto a traditional playmaker, they could not have assembled this two-way juggernaut with off-guards like Derrick White and Jrue Holiday manning the backcourt, pouring in 3s and stifling opponents.

Yearly increase in assists per game: Paolo Banchero vs. Jayson Tatum

While it was gradual for Tatum, the Magic are attempting to fast-track the process for Banchero, who went from averaging 3.7 assists as a rookie to 5.4 last season. He doesn’t read the floor as well as Tatum or deliver passes with the same sharp timing, but he’ll never learn if he isn’t forced to.

Banchero has all the tools to be that guy. The Magic are being pragmatic, understanding they are on his timeline. They’ll learn more about how close they are this season.

Paolo Banchero ranked No. 6 on FanSided's 2024-25 25-under-25, ranking the best young players in the NBA. Check out the rest of the list here.