Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen rivalry should have Bills worried for playoff matchup

The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, which is the fourth postseason matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

That is the storyline going into Sunday. Of course it is.

Allen has put together his best individual season to date, dragging the Bills to the brink of Super Bowl glory despite losing both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in the offseason. Buffalo cut costs at Allen's expense and it didn't matter. He balled out anyway.

But, none of that will matter if Buffalo can't get the job done in Kansas City. This is a legacy-making opportunity for the Bills' quarterback, who already got the best of Lamar Jackson in a tense divisional round. If Allen can get through two MVPs to reach the Super Bowl, his status will be truly cemented in NFL lore. Especially if he can finish the job.

History is sometimes unkind, though, and it is especially unkind to Allen and the Bills when Kansas City is involved. The Chiefs tend to have Buffalo's number at this time of year, as evidenced by all the meaningful bellwethers.

Numbers all point to Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs as favorite to beat Bills in AFC Championship

Kansas City is -1.5 point favorites on Sunday, per DraftKings (h/t Iain MacMillan, Sports Illustrated). The Chiefs also get the edge historically, with Mahomes outperforming Allen across the board in previous postseason matchups.

Allen is 0-3 against Mahomes in the playoffs, with a dramatically worse QB rating (98.9) compared to that of Mahomes (126.6). That is only a couple numbers, but Allen is also the only quarterback to throw an interception in prior matchups on this stage . He does have more rushing yards and touchdowns (both are responsible for nine TDs total), but Allen tends to make that one critical error that Mahomes does not.

We saw this matchup last winter in the divisional round, with Kansas City edging out Buffalo, 27-24, in a thrilling comeback on the road. Allen was quite impressive, notching 186 passing yards and 72 rushing yards with three touchdowns. Mahomes threw for 215 yards on much greater efficiency, with a couple touchdowns of his own. In the end, Mahomes led the game-winning drive, not Allen, and the Chiefs went on to become Super Bowl champs.

Last time around, the Bills were actually the home team, with KC serving as underdogs in the wake of a middling regular season. For the Chiefs to still emerge victorious was a tough pill for fans to swallow. Now the roles are reversed. Both are worthy division champs, but the Chiefs won 15 games this season. With Super Bowl rings stacking up and a certain reputation to uphold, how does one not pick the Chiefs?

Some will harken back to the regular season, however, when Buffalo was the only team to beat Kansas City at full strength. Allen was utterly magnificent in that game, throwing for 262 yards and a touchdown (along with 55 yards and a touchdown on the ground, including this Allen clutch masterpiece).

That clip will be a source of hope for Buffalo fans in the coming days. The Chiefs are undoubtedly vulnerable on paper, but Andy Reid's squad always seems to find a way when the moment arrives. Allen will look to great that spell and put Buffalo (and his career) in a new stratosphere. Let's see if he has what it takes.