Paul Finebaum has zero faith in Florida head coach Billy Napier saving his job at all

Can Billy Napier run the gauntlet again? While attempting to do so last season nearly cost him his job, Napier is back in Gainesville for another season to lead the Florida Gators. "Sun Belt" Billy was able to get Florida back to a bowl game by getting key wins down the stretch, most notably the one very late in the season vs. College Football Playoff contender Ole Miss. Unfortunately, it will not get any easier.

While appearing on Andy & Ari On3, ESPN college football analyst Paul Finebaum did not express anything close to the level of enthusiasm Andy Staples and Ari Wasserman had for the Florida program. Staples may be drinking a bit of the blue Kool-Aid in his hometown of Gainesville, but nobody saw this coming. Finebaum said Florida should lose all four of its crucial games in a row.

They all looked at Florida's 2025 schedule on the show. Finebaum said that Florida should expect to lose at LSU, at Miami, home vs. Texas and then at Texas A&M to drop to 2-4 overall and 0-3 in SEC play before their Oct. 18 home date vs. moribund Mississippi State. I would say that Florida is not likely to beat LSU on the road and Texas at home, but at Miami and Texas A&M are winnable games.

With the hardest schedule in the nation, Florida may still be able to win around seven or eight games.

Here is the entire episode of Andy & Ari On3 where Finebaum completely shuts down Napier's team.

To me, as long as Napier remains in lock step with athletic director Scott Stricklin, he will be just fine.

What games on Florida's 2025 schedule will decide Billy Napier's fate?

Looking at Florida's 2025 slate, I would argue that there are five games the Gators should win going away, five that could either way, and two that are probably not going to happen. The easiest game on Florida's schedule is the Gators' home opening vs. the LIU Sharks and their hardest would have to be the home date vs. Texas in the very early part of October. Everything else in between feels a bit fluid.

Right this instant, here is how I would break down the games on Florida's schedule as wins or losses.

• Probable wins (5): LIU, South Florida, Mississippi State, at Kentucky, Florida State
• Probable losses (2): Texas, Georgia (Jacksonville, FL)
• Could go either way (5): at LSU, at Miami, at Texas A&M, at Ole Miss, Tennessee

If you want to swap in at LSU or home vs. Tennessee with the neutral-site date vs. Georgia down in Jacksonville, be my guest. You will not hurt my feelings. Just to make things simple, I am going to look at the five games I have tabbed as either way games to see if Florida will be as good as 10-2 or as bad as 5-7. The answer is probably somewhere in between. The question is if Napier needs to get to 8-4.

I feel of the either way games at LSU and home vs. Tennessee are probably the most likely losses. Those feel like playoff teams. I have Tennessee getting in and LSU being in the conversation, as I do Florida. You beat either of those teams and you get to 9-3, then we are talking. My other concern is the three other games that could go either way are all on the road in Miami, Texas A&M and Ole Miss.

The Miami and Texas A&M dates feel the most crucial on the schedule. A win over either could stand as quality resume builders, while a loss is not going to punish you as badly as you would think. For whatever reason, I think Florida drops one of the three between Miami, Ole Miss and Texas A&M. That would have the Gators at 7-5. Again, they need to beat either LSU or Tennessee to keep Napier safe.

Finebaum may have been a tad too harsh on Florida, but the Gators need to win around eight games.