Giannis Antetokounmpo might have played his final game with the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday.
The Bucks are fresh off their third straight first-round playoff exit, and this year's loss to the Indiana Pacers was the most devasting one yet. Star point guard Damian Lillard tore his Achilles in Game 4 and now figures to miss most if not all of the 2025-26 campaign. That effectively ends the Bucks' title hopes for next season before they could even begin.
Antetokounmpo told a pair of Greek reporters earlier this year that he didn't think he'd ever request a trade and that the Bucks "would have to kick me out," but Lillard's injury might change his thinking in that regard. He hinted to Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel in February that if the Bucks fell out of title contention, he might be open to moving on.
"I don't want to stay in my comfort zone," Antetokounmpo said. "I want to be challenged. And if the challenge is here, which it is right now—we have a real challenge, people don't respect us, we have good group, it's good. But we might not have a challenge one day. We might be rebuilding as a team, or we might not be chasing nothing.
“So, will my individual athlete be more important than the championship? This is a thing that maybe some players make a mistake. They stay in the place maybe too long.”
Even if Antetokounmpo doesn't request a trade this offseason, the writing is on the wall. Lillard is earning $54.1 million next season and has a $58.5 million player option in 2026-27. It's nearly impossible for teams to overcome spending that much on someone unless they're getting star-level production in return. They might not even get a single point from Lillard in 2025-26.
Brook Lopez, who turned 37 at the beginning of April, is set to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Bobby Portis ($13.4 million), Pat Connaughton ($9.4 million) and Kevin Porter Jr. ($2.5 million) could join him if they turn down their respective player options. And the Bucks are woefully short on promising young players who could help carry the mantle alongside Antetokounmpo in Lillard's absence.
The draft won't provide much relief, either. They have a second-round pick from the Detroit Pistons in this year's draft, but they've otherwise traded away control of every first- and second-round pick through 2030. They'll still have first-rounders in 2026, 2028 and 2030, but other teams have swap rights with them, which limits the upside of the pick that they'll wind up getting.
Long story short, trading Antetokounmpo is the Bucks' only way out of a lengthy stay in NBA purgatory. But since they've already traded their future draft capital, they can't trade Antetokounmpo for a picks-and-prospects-heavy package and then begin tanking with aplomb.
That is, unless they loop the New Orleans Pelicans into an Antetokounmpo trade.
The Pelicans have a golden ticket for a Giannis trade scenario
When the Bucks acquired Jrue Holiday ahead of the 2020-21 season, they sent the Pelicans two future first-round picks (2025 and 2027) as well as the rights to swap first-round picks in 2024 and 2026. That trade immediately paid off in a championship for Milwaukee, but the chickens may now be coming home to roost.
Luckily, the Pelicans may also be considering a major shakeup this offseason. They just fired executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin, and Zion Williamson's inability to stay healthy could leave them open to trade discussions. New EVP Joe Dumars told reporters that he doesn't have an edict to trade Williamson this offseason, but he didn't exactly declare him off-limits, either.
A package built around Williamson, the Bucks' 2026 swap rights and the better of the Pelicans and Bucks' 2027 first-round pick—the Pelicans already owe the worse of the two to the Atlanta Hawks (top-four protected)—could be a solid starting point for an Antetokounmpo trade. If the Bucks weren't inclined to take on the health risk with Williamson, the Pelicans could look to loop in a third team (Portland? Miami?) that would send additional assets to Milwaukee.
The Brooklyn Nets swung a similar trade with the Houston Rockets last offseason as they doubled down on their own rebuild. They sent a 2025 swap with the Phoenix Suns, a 2027 Suns first-round pick and the rights to the two most favorable 2029 first-round picks from Dallas, Phoenix or Houston to the Rockets for negating their previously agreed-upon 2025 swap rights and their own 2026 first-round pick back.
That trade could wind up being particularly costly for the Nets, who finished only three spots ahead of the Suns in the lottery this year. However, it gave them the leeway to trade Mikal Bridges for a picks-heavy package from the New York Knicks.
The Bucks could trade a 2031 first-round pick and a 2032 swap (or vice versa) to the Pelicans after this year's draft in an attempt to regain control of their next two first-rounders. However, the Pelicans would likely demand more, knowing those picks could be worth their weight in gold if the Bucks trade Antetokounmpo this offseason. The Bucks' best path to getting those picks back is looping the Pelicans into an Antetokounmpo trade, whether as his final landing spot or as a facilitator in a three- or four-team deal.
The Bucks could decide to drag things out with Antetokounmpo, but the longer they wait to move him, the closer he'll be to potentially leaving for nothing as a free agent in 2027. He still has two guaranteed years left on his contract, so the Bucks would likely command a historic haul for him if they do move on this summer. (Provided, of course, that they don't only negotiate with one team clandestinely.)
The writing is on the wall for the Bucks in the wake of Lillard's injury. If they accept their fate and begin to shop the Greek Freak this offseason, Dumars and the Pelicans should expect a call inquiring what it'd take for the Bucks to get control of their next two first-round picks back.