Where will Penn State fall in CFP bracket if they lose Big Ten Championship Game?

For the first time ever, the Penn State Nittany Lions will be in the College Football Playoff! They were arguably the best program to never make it in once during the four-team format from the previous decade. Playoff expansion has served Penn State considerably. Entering conference championship weekend, the Nittany Lions are one of eight teams with a 99-percent chance or better of getting in.

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Penn State has a 99.6 percent chance to make the playoff. The Nittany Lions are tied with the Tennessee Volunteers for the sixth-best odds to make it in. The six other playoff locks outside of Penn State and Tennessee are Georgia, Indiana, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon and Texas. Georgia, Oregon, Penn State and Texas can still get first-round byes.

These are the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings heading into championship weekend.

1. Oregon Ducks (12-0)
2. Texas Longhorns (11-1)
3. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1)
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1)
5. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2)
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)
7. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2)
8. SMU Mustangs (11-1)
9. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1)
10. Boise State Broncos (11-1)
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)
12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
13. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)
15. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2)
16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2)
17. Clemson Tigers (9-3)
18. BYU Cougars (10-2)
19. Missouri Tigers (9-3)
20. UNLV Rebels (10-2)
21. Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3)
22. Syracuse Orange (9-3)
23. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3)
24. Army Black Knights (10-1)
25. Memphis Tigers (10-2)

Based on Tuesday night's rankings, here is what the playoff picture looks like heading into this week.

1. Oregon Ducks (12-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
2. Texas Longhorns (11-1) (Projected SEC champion)
3. SMU Mustangs (11-1) (Projected ACC champion)
4. Boise State Broncos (11-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) (Projected SEC runner-up)
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (Projected SEC at-large)
12. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) (Projected Big 12 champion)

And from that, these would be the first four teams out heading into the conference championships.

• 13. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) (ACC)
• 14. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) (SEC)
• 15. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) (SEC)
• 16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) (Projected Big 12 runner-up)

If Penn State falls to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, how far would the Nittany Lions stumble?

How far would Penn State fall if they lose to Oregon in Big Ten title bout?

Even if it is by one point, Penn State would drop down from the No. 5 seed in the final College Football Playoff rankings. They would be 11-2 as the Big Ten runner-up, but would not have a quality win under their belt. It would not knock them out of the playoff under any reasonable circumstances, but they are still in a good position for a home playoff game in the first round should they not win the Big Ten.

Assuming chalk everywhere else with all favorites winning this weekend, this may be the playoff field.

1. Oregon Ducks (13-0) (Big Ten champion)
2. Texas Longhorns (12-1) (SEC champion)
3. SMU Mustangs (12-1) (ACC champion)
4. Boise State Broncos (12-1) (Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (National independent at-large)
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Big Ten at-large)
7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) (SEC runner-up)
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) (Big Ten runner-up)
9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (SEC at-large)
10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Big Ten at-large)
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (SEC at-large)
12. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) (Big 12 champion)

Penn State would drop behind Notre Dame because the Nittany Lions' lack of a quality win would not make up for their two losses. Notre Dame's loss to Northern Illinois is bad, but even their win over Army is better than anything Penn State has done up to this point. Penn State would obviously go behind 10-2 Ohio State who they lost to. I think they would drop down to No. 8 after 10-3 Georgia...

This is because I have a very strong feeling that the Selection Committee is going to want to avoid having first-round rematches in the same venue from the regular season. Having Penn State hosting Tennessee is the No. 8 vs. No. 9 would help avoid the Vols going back to Athens or Indiana going back to Columbus. It may not be perfect, but I think this seeding with chalk makes the most people happy.

This bracket would screw over Notre Dame a bit, as they would host No. 11 Alabama as the No. 6.