After the first year of the expanded College Football Playoff, it is safe to say that the Penn State Nittany Lions are about as close to a lock to make it back as any team in college football. They have big-game experience on their side with a seasoned roster., and they also have arguably the best coaching staff in the country after poaching Jim Knowles from Ohio State. So then why are many of us feeling so trepidatious about them already?
Well, for starters, the Penn State offseason hype train is starting to pick up a bit too much steam for my liking. Admittedly, it is partially my fault, but I do not want to see potentially the most loaded team in college football come careening off the tracks well before Thanksgiving weekend. I doubt that they will, but it all comes down to how we should feel about their long-time head coach, James Franklin.
Not to say that he attended the Mark Richt Driving Academy located inside of Georgia State Route 10 Loop in the Athens, Georgia, but Franklin has become the epitome of a 10-2 season. The Driver, as he is known around these parts, will get this team into the playoff, but will almost always run out of gas when it matters most. This season is all about him no longer being the Michael Jordan of Ryan Days.
And seeing where Penn State is on ESPN's SP+ rankings after the spring practice has me a bit concerned.
NEW: ESPN SP+ College Football Top 25 via @ESPN_BillC👀
— On3 (@On3sports) May 22, 2025
The SP+ factors returning production, recent recruiting, and information from the previous four seasons. https://t.co/eyaP9ayXWn pic.twitter.com/Kl8A3NN5tw
They feel like a top-three team in the country, yet why does this visualization from On3 seem so odd?
Penn State may be slightly overrated when it comes to the SP+ rankings
No, it is not by all that much. Right now, I would have Penn State beating Clemson in the national championship game, but keep in mind that a lot can change between now and Selection Sunday. For those at home who do not remember what all goes into Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings, it's a combination of returning production, recruiting prowess and team success over the last four years.
The formula Connelly uses gets us to a decent understanding of where the college football powers lie, but it does overlook a few things. My biggest criticism of it is the four-year running average of team success can be so misleading. Alabama and Michigan get high marks because of their previous head coaches in Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh. Should we trust Kalen DeBoer and Sherrone Moore?
Another one that I think it grossly overlooks is coaching prowess. The Miami Hurricanes coming in at No. 12 signifies to me that Mario Cristobal can recruit like nobody's business, but struggles to tell the difference between an X or an O in-game. He does not know how the pieces fit, but he will make the pieces fit anyway. The square peg goes in the round hole! So how does this all tie back to Penn State then?
Well, when it comes to Franklin leading Penn State, we should expect more often than not that the Nittany Lions will lose to Ohio State as often as Georgia does to Alabama and Auburn does to Georgia on the road. The cards are not in their favor there. Franklin also fails to elevate his team beyond what it should do in a game. If Penn State is the underdog, they are never going to win big.
So, between undeniably underwhelming as an underdog and struggling to hold serve vs. other high-caliber teams, there is a finite ceiling with Franklin leading this team. He may have hit it last year losing to Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl in the national semifinals of the College Football Playoff. Frankly, I would love nothing more than for Franklin and his team to truly rise to the occasion for once in my life.
Penn State may be my pick to win the national championship now, but I am gradually losing my faith.