Phillies free agent prediction could flip the postseason script in 2025

The 2024 season looked so promising for so long for the Philadelphia Phillies. They went 95-67, winning their first NL East title since 2011 and earning the No. 2 seed in the National League. That outstanding regular season helped get themselves the first-round bye they had coveted.

Unfortunately, that great regular season did not translate in October. Philadelphia won a grand total of one postseason game and were sent home by their NL East rivals, the New York Mets, in the NLDS.

There are several reasons as to why the Phillies lost. Factors like the bats going cold and the team running into the red-hot Mets certainly played a role, but perhaps the biggest reason that they lost was because their bullpen was a mess. The Mets didn't do much against the vaunted Phillies rotation in three of the four games in that series, but they teed off against the bullpen. Even in the one game Philadelphia won, New York got to the Phillies bullpen.

The Phillies bullpen allowed a total of 17 runs (16 earned) in 11.2 innings of work. Every Phillies reliever who appeared in the series allowed at least one run. It's really hard to win that way.

With that in mind, changes should be made on that front. Jim Bowden of The Athletic (subscription required) made a prediction that would impact the bullpen a ton and potentially help them win in 2025.

"Lefty Tanner Scott signs a four-year, $60 million deal with the Phillies, who say goodbye to high-leverage relievers Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez in free agency."

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason.

Phillies shake up the bullpen in a big way in free agent prediction

Essentially, the Phillies let arguably their two best relievers from this past regular season walk in free agency, and replace them with the best free agent reliever on the market, Tanner Scott. There are pros and cons to this solution.

The obvious pro is that Scott is as elite of a reliever as there is in the game at this point. He was dominant under the radar for the Miami Marlins in 2023, and wound up following that up with another strong year, posting a 1.75 ERA in 72 appearances and 72 innings pitched for the Marlins and San Diego Padres.

Not only was Scott outstanding during the regular season, but he did not allow a run in his five appearances during the postseason, and striking out seven batters in 4.1 innings of work. He often was thrown into the fire against Shohei Ohtani and the electric top of the Los Angeles Dodgers batting order, and had immense success.

When taking that postseason success into account, Phillies fans can only get jealous. Sure, Estevez and Hoffman were great during the regular season, but they combined to allow eight runs (seven earned) in just four innings of work when it really mattered. Hoffman and Estevez were the ones who set the stage for the Mets to wrap up the NLDS in Game 4.

It's easy to argue that Scott is a better option than both of these relievers individually, but an obvious con of this decision is that the Phillies would lose valuable depth by making this swap. They gain a lockdown closer, but how good is that if the rest of the bullpen blows a game before it even gets to Scott later? Getting better pitchers like Scott makes sense, but having that come at the expense of depth feels less than ideal.

In a perfect world, the Phillies swap Estevez and Hoffman for Scott and another usable late-game reliever. Is that possible if Scott is going to sign the kind of contract Bowden is predicting? That's only up to John Middleton and the Phillies front office to decide. This kind of major shift of parting with depth in exchange for one better arm can work, but it also isn't hard to see where this plan falls apart if the Phillies do go through with it.

Regardless, trying something new after such a disappointing finish makes a lot of sense.