The Philadelphia Phillies are 10-5 in their last 15 games, so there hasn't been much to complain about in recent weeks. Bryce Harper's ongoing slump is a mild concern, but it's still Bryce Harper, so there is baked-in confidence that the tide will turn eventually.
The superhero of this Phillies team (aside from Kyle Schwarber's league-leading 15 home runs) is the rotation. Jesús Luzardo has settled in beautifully, while Ranger Suárez pitched seven scoreless innings in just his second start of the season after a stint on the IL. At full strength, Philadelphia's starting pitching feels almost bulletproof.
There has been one exception, however, and in a shocking twist, that exception is not named Taijuan Walker. It is Aaron Nola, who now boasts a 6.16 ERA and 1.51 WHIP through nine starts. He gave up nine earned runs in 3.2 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday, his worst meltdown of the season.
Nola just recently pitched seven innings of one-run baseball against Chicago and logged six shutout innings against Arizona, so it's not like we haven't seen flashes of his old excellence. But those flashes have been sparse in what is otherwise shaping up to be a nightmare season.
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Aaron Nola could lose his spot in Phillies' postseason rotation at this rate
We are only midway through May, so there's plenty of time left for Nola to reverse course and improve his standing in the Phillies rotation. That said, he's 31 years old and in the second season of a seven-year contract, so the signs of decline are troublesome.
Nola's average fastball velocity (91 MPH) is a full tick lower than it was last season (92.1 MPH), now in MLB's ninth percentile. He can still get batters to chase with that sweeping curve, but his command has suffered greatly. His walk rate is up. So is his hard contact. The overall metrics are not terribly concerning — at least not relative to his basic stats — but it's hard to ignore how poor the results have been.
The Phillies have ample depth in the rotation. In addition to four regular starters with All-Star pedigree (or future All-Star pedigree, in the case of Luzardo), Philadelphia has Walker in its back pocket. Last season was an unmitigated disaster for the righty, but he has turned around and posted a 2.62 ERA through eight appearances and 34.1 innings in 2025. Walker looks awfully capable of eating innings in a pinch; he is also proof positive that a bad stretch of decreased velocity and increased contact is not necessarily a career death knell. He's even on a bad, expensive contract, so there are some troubling (but also mildly comforting) parallels.
Nola should still have bullets left in the chamber at 31. He has been a paragon of consistency over the years in Philadelphia. He has his share of cold spells, but Nola always bounces back, with a poise and bravado that puts him in a special category of ace. There's a reason Philly shelled out $172 million to keep him away from Atlanta.
It's probably too soon for outright panic, but this does feel like a new low point in Nola's career. Consequently, Philadelphia has never been in a better position to paper over a weak link in the rotation. If the Phillies get to the postseason at full strength and Nola still has not figured out his stuff, there's no reason for Rob Thomson to play him in high-leverage situations. The pressure is on for Nola to correct course before he falls too far in the rotational hierarchy.