10 college football teams to take the biggest step back in 2024

Not everyone can be champions. Although some levels of success can be sustained at many major college football programs, not everyone can be Nick Saban's Alabama, Kirby Smart's Georgia, or even Ryan Day's Ohio State. While all teams aspire to reach the summit like Jim Harbaugh's Michigan Wolverines did a year ago, sometimes eight-to-10 wins can be a season worth celebrating for others.

While this is usually the time of the year to be optimistic about one's favorite teams, there are some out there that may need a reality check over what could be coming down the pipeline. Whether it be roster attrition, coaching turnover or bad breaks in the schedule, we've all been there, man. A season coming off one of great achievement can often result in one full of nothing but heartbreak and failure.

So what I am going to do today is take a look at 10 college football programs that have achieved great success either last season or quite recently that I don't think have it in them to replicate that this year. Again, there are varying factors that contribute to this, but this is just kind of where my head is at right now. I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong by every team that I have listed here.

Let's start with a team that was playoff-caliber before getting obliterated in a matter bowl for Georgia.

10. Florida State Seminoles

While I am still bullish on the Florida State Seminoles' chances of making the College Football Playoff out of the ACC, I sincerely doubt they are going to be toying with perfection this year. This has everything to do with many of the 'Noles best players turning pro, as well as the top-tier of the ACC leveling up. Florida State will be challenged by the likes of Clemson, Miami and NC State this season.

In truth, Florida State could win the league and prove me wrong, but I have a hard time seeing the 'Noles as a top-five team in the country throughout. If Oregon State transfer D.J. Uiagalelei finally plays up to the five-star potential Clemson saw in him coming out of St. John Bosco, then maybe I will have some crow to eat? In the meantime, my attention goes to what Mike Norvell could do anyway.

Florida State is probably closer to a top-15 team in the country next season than a top-five one.

9. Alabama Crimson Tide

As with Florida State, I still think there is a really good chance that the Alabama Crimson Tide could make the expanded College Football Playoff. However, they do play in the tougher conference and just lost the greatest head coach of all time in Nick Saban to retirement. For as bullish as I am on Kalen DeBoer long-term, I have a hard time seeing Jalen Milroe playing for a national championship.

Oh, that doesn't mean I am not a big fan of the Alabama star quarterback, because I sure as hell am. He is my pick to win the Heisman Trophy. However, this feels more and more like a 10-2 team the more and more I think about it. Again, this is not to say Alabama will not make the Playoff. I just feel like the amount of changes they underwent all offseason long limits their championship ceiling.

Alabama could be one of five or six SEC teams to make the playoff, but they are not going to Atlanta.

8. Troy Trojans

As with what I said about Florida State and Alabama previously, I could be totally wrong about how I feel about the Troy Trojans. This is one of the better Group of Five programs out there. We have seen many quality head coaches have great success leading the Trojans. However, losing Jon Sumrall to the Tulane gig opens up a level of doubt for me with this year's team. So what about Gerad Parker?

Parker was a late head-coaching hire in the cycle, or at least one of the last ones to get hired before Nick Saban's retirement reopened that can of worms in a big way. In time, I suspect that Parker will be able to achieve similar success that some of his predecessors like Sumrall and Neal Brown had leading Troy. Unfortunately, the Sun Belt can be unforgiving at times, and this could be a tough year.

Troy has the infrastructure to hang with the best programs in the Group of Five, but it will pull back.

7. James Madison Dukes

The James Madison Dukes are another Group of Five team I have apprehension about achieving the same amount of success this year as last. Frankly, it has been a great year for JMU sports across the board. Although I am coming more and more around on the Bob Chesney hire, losing Curt Cignetti to the Indiana job absolutely sucks. I get why he left for a Big Ten bottom-feeder, but what a letdown...

Simply put, JMU will not have the juice the Dukes had last season. They will be eligible for the postseason, without needing any waiver from the NCAA or whatnot. However, they do play in arguably the toughest Group of Five league. Even though I also have Troy pulling back a bit, there are plenty of excellent teams in the Sun Belt that I think could knock the Dukes down a peg or two.

We are not talking about a massive regression, but this might be an eight-win team in 2024.

6. Louisville Cardinals

We have arrived at another very intriguing ACC team to monitor. I hate to say it, but the Louisville Cardinals arrived a year or two early under new head coach Jeff Brohm last year. The combination of a soft schedule, a down ACC and Brohm being a breath of fresh air being inserted into the program is why U of L played for a conference champion. They are still top-half in the ACC, but not much more.

Frankly, the Cardinals are going to need to lead on the veteran experience of Texas Tech transfer quarterback Tyler Shough. He has been in college forever. This fall will be a major test in Brohm's rise to power in a new-look ACC. I love what he did last year at Louisville and think he did an amazing job at Purdue previously. I just feel that the upper crust of the ACC this year is far better than Louisville.

The Cardinals will be a bowl-caliber team, but are more likely to go 7-5 than finish the season ranked.

5. North Carolina Tar Heels

If my FanSided.com colleague and False Start co-host Cody Williams is this out on his beloved UNC Tar Heels this season, then consider me out as well. North Carolina feels like it is a program on autopilot for as long as Mack Brown remains the team's head coach. He is an all-timer, but he is also an oldtimer. Right now, I have a hard time ever seeing UNC winning more than eight games under him.

Factor in that the Tar Heels no longer have Drake Maye slinging the pigskin for them and you have to wonder if Texas A&M transfer Max Johnson is as left-handed as he thinks he is. While running back Omarion will be one of the best backfield performers in the country, it will be a struggle to see this team be anything more than a fringe top-25 team this fall. Maybe they are the fifth-best in the ACC?

If it is another disappointing year for UNC, send Brown off into retirement and poach Jamey Chadwell.

4. New Mexico State Aggies

We may not see a bigger regression to the mean of a Group of Five team this year than what we could see out of the New Mexico State Aggies. With head coach Jerry Kill stepping down, retiring or whatever to go to Vanderbilt, it will be the Tony Sanchez show, one that will no longer be featuring Diego Pavia. Guess who is the new starting quarterback for the Vanderbilt Commodores this season?

For as fun as the Aggies had been under Kill the last two years and with Pavia throwing the football around the yard, New Mexico State is poised to regress into being one of the worst programs in the Group of Five. Although they are now part of the perfect conference for them in Conference USA, it is hard to come back from losing the two pillars of your program in Kill and Pavia to freaking Vanderbilt.

There is a halfway decent chance that the Aggies go from CUSA runner-up to a sub-.500 record.

3. Oregon State Beavers

This one stinks. You hate to see it. With the death of the Pac-12, where is Oregon State to go? Only down. Jonathan Smith left his alma mater for a chance at cleaning up Mel Tucker's mess at Michigan State. He brought with him a few Beavers, including soon-to-be Spartans starting quarterback Aidan Chiles. Although playing essentially a Mountain West schedule will help, I hated the Trent Bray hire.

Anytime a Pacific Northwest school opts to promote a loyal coordinator from within after achieving great success under somebody else, it rarely works out. Not to say Bray will be this generation's version of Jim Laimbright, but it could be more Mark Helfrich than you would think. Oregon State will sadly go from being one of the 15 best teams in the country to a forgettable 7-5 bowl team like that.

I hate this so much for Oregon State and Washington State fans right now. I am here for you guys.

2. Michigan Wolverines

This feels so obvious. Michigan is coming off three straight trips to the College Football Playoff and its first national championship season since 1997 when the Wolverines split with Nebraska. Not only is Jim Harbaugh and most of his coaching staff gone for the NFL, so too are many of the Wolverines' top players. Michigan does retain some level of high-end talent, but there has been too much attrition.

Although the team responded to him during his four games last fall as the interim head coach, it will be up to Sherrone Moore to keep Michigan afloat during this year of great transition for them. With potentially sanctions coming down the pipeline, Michigan might win half as many games as it did last year. 15-0 is not happening again. Furthermore, maybe 9-3 is this team's ceiling for next season?

If the Big Ten gets four teams into the playoff, how sure are we that Michigan will be one of them?

1. Washington Huskies

The only team I think could pull back more than even Michigan this year would have to be the team the Wolverines beat in last year's national championship. That would be the Washington Huskies. Not only are the Huskies losing so much on-field talent, but Kalen DeBoer and much of his staff left for Alabama. Although I really like Jedd Fisch's upside as a head coach, I feel like he is going to Florida.

With Pat Chun taking over for Troy Dannen as yet another athletic director at U-Dub, I am sensing a massive regression year for the Huskies. It may not be a Jimmy Lake mistake on the lake, but they are not making the Playoff. More importantly, the Huskies are changing leagues. They might be in the worst position of any of the Big Ten newcomers coming over from the Pac-12. It could be so rough.

Washington should still be a bowl team, but the Huskies will not be contending for much of anything.