2 reasons to believe in every underdog in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs
The Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs was underwhelming this year, as three of the four games ended in lopsided fashion. Now that the pretenders have been eliminated and only eight teams remain, though, it's about to get serious. Four tasty matchups await this weekend with a berth in the conference championship games at stake, and call me crazy, but I think we're going to see some great games.
Most experts have had a Ravens-49ers Super Bowl penciled in for quite some time, but as any longtime NFL fan can tell you, it's never quite that easy. One bad matchup, one bad bounce of the football, or one bad call at the wrong time can be the difference between surviving and going home. Don't let the seeds fool you, each underdog enters this weekend with a real belief that they can keep advancing, and as we'll soon get into, they may have a point.
Is every underdog going to win this weekend? Almost certainly not, but I think it's likely that one or two find a way to pull the upset. Let's dig into each game and look at two reasons why each of the favorites should be on high alert.
Reason No. 1 why the Texans can beat the Ravens: Fourth quarter performance
On paper, Baltimore should be a big favorite in this game, and with a nine-point spread, Vegas agrees. The Ravens have been dominant this year, but they're not invincible, and their biggest area of concern coincides with one of the Texans' greatest strengths.
Houston, and C.J. Stroud in particular, have been dynamite late in games. The Texans lead the league with 12 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter, and Stroud's ability to come through in the clutch is the primary reason they're in the playoffs in the first place.
Stroud's coming-out party came in Week 9 when he outgunned the Bucs with 470 yards and five touchdowns, including a game-winning touchdown drive in just 40 seconds after the Bucs took the lead with 46 seconds to go. Shout out to all the fantasy football players who had him on the bench that week (it's me). Stroud repeated the feat a week later with a drive to beat the Bengals with no time remaining, and he also came through against the Colts in the season's final week to clinch the AFC South with a fourth-quarter drive to break a 17-17 tie.
The Ravens held a fourth-quarter lead in every game they tried to win this year (this excludes the Week 18 loss to Pittsburgh when the 1-seed was already clinched). Three times, though, they gave up late leads to lose. Against the Colts in Week 3, the Ravens sacked Gardner Minshew for a safety to take a three-point lead with just over two minutes left, but they couldn't run out the clock, allowing the Colts to kick a game-tying field goal, then another one in overtime.
Two weeks later, Baltimore gave up a safety, interception, and fumble in allowing 14 unanswered points in the fourth to lose to the hated Steelers 17-10. In Week 10, the Ravens again imploded in a division game, this time against the Browns, blowing a 14-point fourth-quarter lead that included a Lamar Jackson pick-six and the defense allowing a 12-play, 58-yard drive that culminated in a Dustin Hopkins field goal at the buzzer to end it.
The Ravens better hope that they build a big enough lead in this game so that the fourth quarter doesn't matter, otherwise the combination of Stroud's late brilliance and the Ravens' propensity for falling apart late could cut their season short.
Reason No. 2 why the Texans can beat the Ravens: Lamar Jackson's playoff woes
The Ravens aren't just playing the Texans in this game-- they're playing themselves and their own history, too. The Lamar Jackson era in Baltimore has been incredibly exciting, and for the most part, extremely successful...in the regular season. The playoffs have been a different story, and for Jackson, the presumed MVP of the league, to truly be recognized as one of the game's great quarterbacks, he needs to get it done in the postseason.
With apologies to Joe Flacco and Trent Dilfer, Jackson is the best quarterback in Ravens franchise history, but those signal-callers have one thing that the former Heisman trophy winner doesn't: A Super Bowl ring. Jackson is only 1-3 in his playoff career, and his stats in those four games give no indication that he's one of the most dynamic weapons in the game today.
In his playoff career, Jackson has thrown for 900 yards, three touchdowns, and five interceptions, while being sacked an unconscionable 19 times. All year we've heard praise for new Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Will he help Jackson get over the hump?