2024 NBA Draft scouting report: Dalton Knecht

As Tennessee waltzes into the second weekend of March Madness, all eyes are on senior Dalton Knecht. In his first season with the Vols and his fifth season overall, the former JuCo standout has emerged as college basketball's most prolific perimeter scorer. He's an All-American star, one of the best stories in college hoops, and a bonafide first-round NBA Draft prospect.

It can be hard to sell teams on a 23-year-old late bloomer like Knecht. He lacks outlier physical tools or the body of work of other elite seniors. But, as far as this season is concerned, few have outperformed the Vols' wing. Knecht is scoring prolifically at all three levels, blending efficiency and volume in a way few college players can.

He was the driving force behind the best team in the SEC, responsible for some truly memorable performances. Knecht dropped 39 on Florida and 36 on Georgia in back-to-back games. Faced with Auburn's elite defense, he poured in 39 points on 21 shots. He put up 40 on Kentucky, including six made 3s. There simply isn't a Power Five player, except maybe Zach Edey, who can match the trail of slain enemies Knecht has left behind him in 2023-24.

With so little established at the top of draft boards, there is a natural appeal to Knecht's overwhelming production and apparent NBA readiness. A deep Volunteers run will only cement Knecht's reputation in scouting circles.

Dalton Knecht NBA Draft bio

Height: 6-foot-6
Weight: 204 pounds
Birthdate: April 19, 2001
Position: Shooting Guard/Small Forward
Offensive Role: Scoring Wing
Defensive Role: Off-Ball Wing
Projected Draft Range: 5-25

NBA Draft highlights

Strengths

Again, there's a certain unambiguous quality to Knecht's output this season. Sure, he's late to the party, but he is scoring every which way for a top-2 seed. Knecht has consistently torched the best defenses in college basketball, he has bankable NBA-level skills, and it shouldn't take him long to make an impact. Contenders, or teams looking to contend, will be drawn to Knecht's plug-and-play potential.

The root of Knecht's appeal has always been the 3-point shot. He's shooting at a healthy clip (39.1 percent on 6.3 attempts), showcasing crisp mechanics in various situations. He's automatic on spot-ups, but he's also comfortable hitting relocation 3s and firing off-balance shots on the move. When he puts the ball on the deck, Knecht has a nice package of moves — side-steps, step-backs, hesitations — to generate rhythm and space. He's not just a shooter. He's a tough shot-maker.

Where Knecht has really blown scouts out of the water, however, is his production inside the arc. He is simply one of the best slashers in the draft, expertly deploying changes in speed and direction to create avenues to the rim. Knecht loves to poke around the teeth of the defense and feel out his defender, even turning his back to the basket to faux post-up before rapidly turning the corner and exploding down the lane.

He's not an elite athlete, but Knecht has the burst and strength to get to his spots and finish through traffic. Knecht is a regular at the charity stripe (5.7 FTA) and he's a potent threat both above and below the rim. Knecht has the balance and coordination to hang and find angles when confronted with length. When he gets a runway to the basket, he's explosive enough to elevate and throw it down.

Watching Knecht find his way to the rim is a treat. He can hit contested jumpers all day, but Knecht rarely settles. If he's not stretching the defense out, he's working his way inside while very deliberately mixing the speed and range of his strides. Knecht will often turn the corner not with sheer burst, but simply by stretching longer than his defender. The footwork is immaculate, and Knecht has the touch to finish from any angle.

Knecht is equally, if not more dynamic off the ball. He can successfully navigate off-ball screens before flying into a 3-point attempt. Or, Knecht shows great instincts as a cutter and connector. His assist numbers aren't high, but Knecht can read the floor and move the rock at opportune moments.

There just aren't many more complete offensive players on the board. Knecht poses a threat at every level, whether he's hovering behind the 3-point line or muscling up smaller defenders in the post. He has an in-between game. He doesn't commit a ton of turnovers (1.7 per game). And, in the end, he's shouldering a major workload with remarkable efficiency. He has earned his flowers.

Weaknesses

So, he's going to be 23.1 years old on draft night. Opinions vary on how severely to penalize a player for his "advanced" age, but Knecht is uniquely complete — at least on the offensive end. Concerns are tied not to his ability to immediately contribute, but the extent of his upside. The freshmen in this class will have four years of NBA development work before they're as old as Knecht is now. Maybe he contributes more in the early stages of his rookie contract, but long term, it's fair to wonder at which point the investment in Knecht might sour. He also needs to contribute straight away. If he doesn't, it's a bad sign. He won't have the luxury of patience. See: Chris Duarte.

Knecht is far from a perfect player, of course. The defense is a problem. He is a strong and reasonably athletic wing, but he doesn't slide laterally all that well. If college offenses can pinpoint him as a weakness, it's fair to assume NBA offenses will do the same. We can't act like 23-year-olds are allergic to improvement, but Knecht will enter the league as a mostly one-sided player with far less room for growth than most of his first-round peers. It's something for front offices to chew on.

The low assist numbers (1.7) stand out too. Knecht has been Tennessee's go-to scorer all season. He's not a point guard, but the opportunities to playmake for others are not hard to come by. He's a tremendous individual scorer, but when faced with NBA length and athleticism on the defensive end, Knecht will need to be able to expand his repertoire. Odds are Knecht is deployed mostly off the ball at the next level, at least early on, but his ability to leverage his drives to create for teammates could be what determines his ceiling.

That said, Knecht has relatively few true weaknesses compared to others on this board. What he lacks is the room for growth.

Final summary

There's a good chance Knecht will rise into the lottery on draft night. There is a natural stigma around drafting older players near the top, but improvement isn't always linear. Two years ago, Knecht was averaging 8.9 points per game for Northern Colorado. He is a definitionally late bloomer, so who knows what more he can pull out of the magic hat? Generally, 23-year-olds are selected for their NBA readiness. Knecht won't be any different. But, he certainly has a unique developmental arc. Whether that's good or bad, only time will tell.

Defense is a real concern with Knecht and it could prevent him from achieving his optimal NBA outcome. Even so, it's hard to overlook such a dynamic, polished, and well-rounded scorer in a weak draft class. Very little feels guaranteed near the top of draft boards. Knecht is the exception. He's going to step in, hit shots, and exploit fissures in the defense. He'll benefit as much as anyone from NBA spacing and the attention commanded by more established teammates.

If Knecht can elevate his playmaking profile and achieve passibility on defense, he is going to stick — for a while. Even if he's not a future NBA star, he definitely feels like a long-term role player. At worst. That's probably enough to justify a high pick this year.