2024 NBA Mock Draft: Nikola Topic claims No. 1, Bronny James to Cavs

Now is the time to recalibrate your expectations for the 2024 NBA Draft. After a historically strong 2023 rookie crop, 2024 holds far less promise. That's not to say there aren't quality prospects, or even a few potential stars, but the baseline is much lower and the top prospects carry far greater risk.

We were spoiled last season. There isn't a top-5 pick from this past June that wouldn't go No. 1 overall a few months from now.

Still, there's a lot to appreciate about the 2024 draft. It's a wide-open race, which means chaos is inevitable. Team context matters more than ever, while the lottery has never been of less significance. Landing at No. 4 or No. 5 doesn't preclude you from ultimately selecting the best player. The teams with the best scouting departments will win out.

We have already been treated to several unconventional breakouts, from Kentucky's diminutive reserve backcourt of Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard, to Serbian point guard Nikola Topic, who has entered the No. 1 conversation in a big way.

Here's a look at the NBA Draft landscape as of mid-December.

2024 NBA Mock Draft: Updated Dec. 14, 2023

We shouldn't inherently trust the Charlotte Hornets to make the best decision. Last season was proof of their front office's inclination toward the college star (Brandon Miller), rather than the less conventional standout (Scoot Henderson). That said, the right pick at the moment is Nikola Topic, who has earned No. 1 pick consideration on the strength of his performance in a top professional league.

More and more, NBA teams are realizing the value of prospects who dominate European pro leagues at a young age (see: Luka Doncic, Alperen Sengun). Topic is 18 years old, one of the youngest players on the board, and he has been absolute aces for Serbia's Mega MIS, a long-running prospect hotbed.

Topic doesn't have the traditional athleticism and shot-making profile of a No. 1 point guard, but he's a prolific driver with excellent feel and craft around the rim. He operates with tremendous pace, always picking the right moment to hit the turbo button and explode down the lane. His 3-point shot looks smooth, even if the volume is lacking, and he could operate as the perfect offensive complement to a high-level connective guard like LaMelo Ball.

Alex Sarr continues to produce for the NBL's Perth Wildcats, emerging as one of the most intriguing athletes in the 2024 class. A true 7-footer with the mobility to guard in space, the fluidly to attack off the dribble, and the explosiveness to live life above the rim, Sarr has all the trappings of a modern-day center.

The defense pops. He's a potentially elite rim protector, with plus instincts and the ability to cover ground. He can switch out to the 3-point line, operate as a weak-side roamer, or anchor a defense in drop coverage. There are more questions about the offense, but Sarr flashes a 3-point shot with the ability to attack in straight-line drives, hit the occasional pull-up jumper, or finish easy lobs inside.

He will occasionally lose the physicality battle in the NBA, especially early on, but the Blazers could view Sarr as a much stronger star bet in the middle than Deandre Ayton.