3 bubble teams with a chance to shake up the College Football Playoff bracket

While perennial powerhouses like Georgia and Ohio State remain favorites, a trio of bubble teams — Kansas State, Boise State, and USC — are quietly positioning themselves to disrupt the bracket. These programs have shown that they can not only compete with top-tier teams but also have the potential to make a deep playoff run.

With dynamic playmakers, strong coaching, and impressive statistical outputs, these three teams could shake up the CFP landscape if they continue their upward trajectory.

Let’s dive into what makes each of them a serious contender to crash the playoff party.

3. Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State’s impressive 2024 season has quickly propelled them to the top of the bubble teams with a shot at the College Football Playoff. The Wildcats, led by sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson, have already made headlines with their stunning 31-7 victory over 20th-ranked Arizona, a game where Johnson’s dual-threat abilities were on full display.

Kansas State dominated with 391 yards of total offense, including 235 rushing yards. Johnson, a dynamic athlete averaging 6.7 yards per carry, had a career-high 110 rushing yards, demonstrating his ability to exploit gaps and make big plays.

One of the keys to Kansas State’s success is their balanced offensive attack. Alongside Johnson’s mobility, running backs DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards provide depth and versatility in the ground game, contributing 122 yards and a touchdown in the Arizona game. This run-heavy approach gives Kansas State an edge in controlling the pace of games and wearing down opposing defenses. Special teams also play a pivotal role, with Edwards’ 71-yard punt return touchdown against Arizona being a game-changing moment.

Statistically, Kansas State’s CFP chances are significant. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), they hold a 33.4 percent chance of reaching the 12-team playoff, making them the second-highest-ranked Big 12 team in this regard.

As the Wildcats head into conference play, they remain favorites in each of their remaining games. Johnson’s ability to extend plays, coupled with a stout defense that ranks in the top 40 nationally in rush defense, makes Kansas State a team capable of shaking up the CFP bracket.

If Kansas State can maintain this momentum and navigate the competitive Big 12 schedule, they will be in prime position to make a strong playoff run, especially with the dynamic play of Johnson drawing comparisons to NFL MVP Lamar Jackson​.

2. Boise State Broncos

Boise State’s 2024 season centers around one name: Ashton Jeanty. The junior running back has been nothing short of electric, and his jaw-dropping performances have propelled Boise State into the College Football Playoff conversation. Jeanty has already accumulated nine touchdowns and is averaging over 10 yards per carry — staggering numbers for a player carrying the weight of his team’s offensive production.

In Boise State’s narrow 37-34 loss to Oregon, Jeanty rushed for 192 yards and three touchdowns, proving that he can compete against top-tier competition. His ability to perform under pressure, even without a strong passing game backing him up, is remarkable.

In that game, Boise State outgained Oregon 369 to 352 yards, highlighting how close the Broncos came to pulling off a major upset. Jeanty’s 70-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter tied the game and put Boise State in a position to win before Oregon’s last-minute field goal.

What makes Boise State dangerous is its ability to create turnovers and capitalize on defensive stops. In the game against Oregon, the Broncos forced two critical fumbles, both of which led to scores. Jeanty’s explosive playmaking ability combined with a defense that ranks among the best in forcing key turnovers gives Boise State a real shot at making the CFP if they win the Mountain West.

Jeanty’s production may slow slightly as the season progresses, but his current pace — over 200 yards of total offense per game — has already put him in early Heisman conversations. If Boise State can continue to get big performances from Jeanty and improve their passing game, they are poised to be the dark horse that could upset the CFP standings

1. USC Trojans

USC’s 2024 campaign is one to watch as the Trojans make their debut in the Big Ten. Under head coach Lincoln Riley, USC has found its rhythm early in the season, securing victories over LSU and Utah State. With a current 2-0 record, USC ranks 11th in the nation, and its path to the College Football Playoff is beginning to take shape.

At the heart of USC’s offense is quarterback Miller Moss, whose ability to handle pressure has been crucial. Moss leads the FBS with a 90.9 percent adjusted completion rate when pressured, a key stat as the Trojans prepare to face the formidable Michigan Wolverines. Against LSU in Week 1, Moss threw for 378 yards and completed 75 percent of his passes, showcasing his efficiency and composure under duress. His ability to thrive against blitz-heavy defenses, as evidenced by his 8.2 yards per attempt when blitzed, will be vital as USC faces tougher Big Ten opponents like Ohio State and Penn State.

USC’s run defense has also been a strength, allowing just 102 rushing yards per game, ranking 26th nationally. While their offensive line’s pass-blocking efficiency is impressive, ranking 26th in Power 5 with only one sack allowed in 80 dropbacks, the real challenge will come in maintaining this performance against elite defenses. The Trojans’ road matchup against Michigan will be the first true test of their playoff credentials.

USC’s playoff hopes hinge on their ability to navigate a challenging Big Ten schedule while continuing to leverage Moss’ efficiency and their strong defensive front. If they can emerge from these matchups with victories, the Trojans are poised to not only make the playoff but potentially host a first-round game.

Kansas State, Boise State, and USC have positioned themselves as legitimate threats to shake up the College Football Playoff. Kansas State’s dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson continues to shine, giving the Wildcats a dangerous and balanced attack. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty has emerged as one of the best running backs in the nation, carrying his team to the brink of playoff contention with electrifying performances. Meanwhile, USC is leveraging both its offensive efficiency and stout defense to navigate the treacherous Big Ten, with Miller Moss thriving under pressure.

If these teams can sustain their momentum and win key matchups in the coming weeks, the college football playoff bracket could look dramatically different than most expect.