3 draft day Franz Wagner takes that were laughably wrong
By Ian Levy
Franz Wagner has been overlooked before. Despite intriguing size and mobility, a well-established two-way skill set and a competitive pedigree at Michigan, he fell to the Orlando Magic at No. 8 in the NBA Draft.
Wagner started 79 games as a rookie, averaging 15.2 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game but finished a somewhat distant fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting. He was even better in his second season, averaging similar box score stats but improving his shooting percentages across the board in 80 starts.
He followed up that strong season with special performances in the first two games of the FIBA World Cup this summer, totaling 32 points, 12 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks in just 57 minutes before an ankle injury kept him out of the rest of the tournament.
In just two seasons, it seems like he has already hit his perceived draft floor as a high-level, hyper-efficient complementary player making two-way impact. But stardom feels more and more within his grasp and those who saw him as nothing more than a role player on draft night are looking like they might have missed the mark.
Shaky Franz Wagner draft-day takes: 3. "People love his team defense, but that's an odd thing to hang your hat on as a top-10 pick"
Gary Parrish of CBS gave the Magic a B- for selecting Wagner in the 2021 NBA Draft and seemed to be mostly focused on the lack of perceived upside:
"He's very young, so there's a lot of room to develop. He played two years of college basketball, and he was never a top-two player on his own team. People call him a shooter, but he never really made his 3-pointers that well. People love his team defense, but that's an odd thing to hang your hat on as a top-10 pick. He could definitely work out, but this is not what I would have done here."
Team defense might not be the flashiest skill but it's an important one and the Magic defense was better by 3.6 points per 100 possessions with Wagner on the floor last year. A versatile forward who takes nothing off the floor on defense unlocks all sort of other lineups and with his multi-faceted offensive game he helps everyone be the best version of himself.
Even with box score stats that aren't quite at star level, he's approaching that level of impact. Among players in their fourth season or less, Wagner was estimated to be the 12th-most impactful player in the league last season by 538's RAPTOR all-in-one metric. His team defense matters and not just because it's not the only way he's contributing.