3 MLB teams that will exceed expectations in 2024, and 2 that will disappoint

Every baseball season, there are surprises in terms of teams that exceed expectations and those which disappoint. Last year, the World Series winner Texas Rangers weren’t expected to make the playoffs while the New York Yankees — a preseason favorite to win the World Series — didn’t play much baseball in October.

Though the majority of Major League Baseball teams play their first regular0season games on March 28, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres kick off the 2024 campaign in Seoul on Wednesday.

With Opening Day rapidly approaching, these are three teams that will exceed expectations in 2024 and two that will disappoint:

The New York Mets could be a surprise bounceback team

Coming off of a 101-win 2022 season, the expectation was that the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves would again battle for the NL East title in 2023. The Braves — who won 104 games — lived up to expectations while the 75-win Mets were one of the biggest disappointments in baseball. 

With the Mets struggling at the trade deadline, it prompted their front office into a mid-season fire sale which included trading frontline starters Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. From there, New York turned its focus to the future.

At the time, Steven Cohen told The New York Post that the Mets would be competitive in 2024 but that 2025 and 2026 would be when the young talent makes an impact. Yet, even with that young talent — including Drew Gilbert and Luisangel Acuña — still developing, the Mets have the talent right now to sneak into the playoff picture.

Francisco Lindor is coming off back-to-back seasons with at least 6 fWAR, Pete Alonso has hit 86 home runs over the last two seasons and Brandon Nimmo has emerged as one of the best outfielders in baseball. Additionally, backstop Francisco Alvarez is primed for a second-year breakout after playing 123 games as a rookie in 2023.

Yet beyond those four stars, Jeff McNeil, who won the 2022 National League batting title, struggled with injuries in 2023 while Starling Marte played just 86 games across the campaign. Though the team didn’t bring in any stars over the offseason, free-agent signing Harrison Bader provides elite defense in center field and greatly strengthens the Mets’ outfield defense with Nimmo moving to left field.

With a star-studded lineup, New York has the talent to hit with any team in the NL. But on the pitching side, there are several question marks in the rotation. With ace Kodai Senga sidelined to start the season, the Mets enter the season with Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser and Tylor Megill manning their rotation. Qunitanta — in limited action — and Houser pitched well last year while Severino, Manaea and Megill all struggled. Yet Quintana, Severino and Manaea all have the potential to be 3+ WAR pitchers when right. If the Mets can even have two solid arms behind a healthy Senga, their rotation can be sneaky good. 

Meanwhile, the bullpen has the potential to be one of the best in MLB. Edwin Diaz, the best reliever in baseball, is fully healthy after missing all of 2023, while new GM David Stearns brought in Jorge Lopez, Jake Diekman and re-signed Adam Ottavino to go alongside Drew Smith and Brooks Raley in set-up opportunities. 

Projected by FanDuel to win 80.5 games, the Mets should exceed expectations in 2024.