3 NFL records Patrick Mahomes will break this season, 1 he'll fall short of

The Kansas City Chiefs cemented themselves as a dynasty with their win over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII. When Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes hoisted his third Lombardi Trophy under the confetti in Las Vegas, he vaulted into the upper echelon of all-time great quarterbacks.

Through his first six seasons as a starting quarterback, Patrick Mahomes has matched the early-career success of Tom Brady, the most fabled quarterback in NFL history. While Brady sits atop all major statistical categories for career passing records, Mahomes has had quite an advantage to catch him. 

Brady began his career at a time when defenses still reigned supreme. In Brady’s first six seasons, the league averaged just 667.8 passing touchdowns per season. By the time Mahomes was selected in the 2017 NFL Draft, rule changes had transformed the league into a pass-oriented game. During Mahomes’ first six seasons as a starter, the league averaged 809.8 passing touchdowns per season. 

It would be disingenuous to disregard the situational differences in any side-by-side statistical comparison, but NFL record books rarely care for context. As Mahomes continues to chase Brady’s legacy, he’s likely to topple many quarterback records along the way.

With the Chiefs preparing for their celebratory banner night to open the regular season, here’s a look at how Mahomes could etch his name into history during the 2024 season. 

Likely: Fastest to 30,000 passing yards

Mahomes can become the fastest player to reach 30,000 career passing yards in NFL history. The record is currently held by Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, who reached the mark in just 109 regular season games.

Mahomes has compiled 28,424 passing yards in 96 career games. Assuming he remains healthy, Mahomes is nearly guaranteed to break Stafford’s record. He needs just 1,576 passing yards through the first 12 games of the 2024 season, which comes out to a measly 131.3 passing yards per game.

If Mahomes passes for his career average of 296.1 passing yards per game, he would reach the milestone in Week 5 against the New Orleans Saints at Arrowhead Stadium.

Likely: Most touchdown passes in eight seasons

Mahomes could surpass Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning for the most touchdown passes by a player in his first eight seasons.

Manning threw for 244 touchdowns through the first eight years of his NFL career. Manning was named the NFL Most Valuable Player two times during that span. In 2004, he set a single-season record with 49 passing touchdowns. 

Unlike Manning, Mahomes didn’t have the luxury of starting in his rookie season. Yet, he still has an opportunity to surpass Manning’s record. 

Mahomes has 219 career touchdown passes through seven seasons. He needs 26 more passing touchdowns in 2024 to pass Manning’s record. Even in his worst statistical seasons, Mahomes has never recorded less than 26 passing touchdowns. Despite Kansas City’s offensive struggles, Mahomes still notched 27 passing touchdowns in 2023. 

If Mahomes passes for his career average of 2.28 passing touchdowns per game, he would break Manning’s record in Week 12 against the Las Vegas Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium. Chiefs fans would certainly enjoy that opportunity against a heated AFC West division rival. 

Likely: Fastest to 250 passing touchdowns

Mahomes could become the fastest player to reach 250 passing touchdowns in NFL history, but it will be much more difficult than the aforementioned records.

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers currently holds the record. Rodgers sat behind Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre for the first three seasons of his career, but it took him just 121 games to reach the milestone.

Mahomes has 219 passing touchdowns in 96 career games. He would need 31 passing touchdowns in his next 24 regular season games to break the record. 

It’s possible that Mahomes falls short of reaching this milestone in 2024. Despite his prior success, Mahomes only notched 27 passing touchdowns last season. There are still concerns about Kansas City’s passing game, and with the emergence of running back Isiah Pacheco, the Chiefs could opt to punch the ball in on the ground more often.

Mahomes has scored at least 37 passing touchdowns in four of his six seasons, so he certainly has the opportunity to surpass Rodgers in 2024. If Mahomes passes for his career average of 2.28 passing touchdowns per game, he would surpass 250 passing touchdowns in Week 15 against the Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field. 

If Mahomes doesn’t tally 31 passing touchdowns in 2024, the record would still be within reach next season. Assuming Mahomes plays all 17 games this season, he would still be able to break the record through the seventh game of the 2025 season. 

Unlikely: Most wins in first eight seasons

Mahomes could break the record for most wins by a quarterback in the first eight seasons of their career. 

Tom Brady and Russell Wilson are currently tied for the record with 86 wins. Brady managed to accomplish the feat in just 112 games, while Wilson took 128 games to reach the win total.

Mahomes has 74 wins through 96 career games through his seven years in the NFL. He would need to win 12 games to break the record. Like Brady, Mahomes didn’t start his rookie season, but both quarterbacks have seen enough success to reach the top of the list anyway. 

Brady missed his eighth season after suffering a torn ACL injury in opening sequence of the 2008 season, which gives Mahomes the opportunity to surpass him. 

Still, it won’t be easy. Mahomes has averaged 12.1 wins per season in his six years as a starter. The additional regular season game certainly gives him an advantage, but the Chiefs would need to win 13 games in order for Mahomes to surpass Brady and Wilson. After posting a 10-6 record last season, that might be a bit too ambitious.